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【华宝证券】兆日科技调研简报:步入新产品推广关键期,2013年底或显曙光

華寶證券 ·  Dec 23, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Matters: A generation of products has entered a period of maturity, and product prices have basically stabilized. On December 20, we conducted a research interview with Zhaori Technology (300333) and had in-depth communication with company executives on the bank note anti-counterfeiting industry and the new product development and promotion process. We believe that 2013 is an important year for business development facing the company. The annual sales volume of banks' financial note products shows a clear cyclical pattern. First-generation electronic payment ciphers (including the company's CI900) are currently entering a stage where growth is slowing and price competition pressure is increasing. For companies, they have also entered an important stage of coping with falling prices of old products and vigorously promoting new products. The resulting increase in new product promotion costs may increase the pressure on the company's performance this year. Looking ahead to 2013, the company will enter a new growth period in the fourth quarter of 2013 or the first half of 2014, as the company's new product dual-mode transformer king (CI980) increases in the share of the company's overall product sales, bringing stability to gross margin, and in addition to the fact that the bill anti-cloning product, which has received much attention in the market, is expected to enter a commercial promotion period in the third quarter of next year. Main opinion: The overall growth rate of electronic password payments has entered a period of stability. Looking at this year, electronic payment cryptographic devices have maintained relatively rapid growth this year, and their market penetration rate has increased from 15% at the beginning of the year to around 20%. Looking at the whole year, the overall electronic cryptographic payment industry has maintained a growth rate of 20%, which is a significant slowdown from previous years. This is mainly due to the following three reasons. (1) The stock base is large, and its growth rate has slowed down from the previous 2 years. In addition, the following three reasons have also caused the overall growth rate of the payment cryptographic device market in this year's market to fall short of expectations: (2) the macroeconomic downturn has caused banks as a whole to focus on traditional deposit and loan services and are more conservative in promoting new businesses; (3) compared with previous years, there have been almost no large-scale cheque fraud cases this year, which has caused banks to relax in the promotion process; (4) the Banking Regulatory Commission has stepped up checks on bank random charges this year, and electronic payment ciphers have been miskilled. In addition, the price war in the third quarter also inevitably affected the company's old products: the price of the company's classic product, the CI-900, fell about 20% from last year. These factors combined to cause the company's third-quarter results to fall short of expectations. Overall, the market penetration rate of electronic payment cryptography devices is still low, yet electronic payment cryptography still seems to be a relatively effective, practical, and economical anti-counterfeiting method. We expect to reach a penetration rate of around 60% within the next 4 years, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to remain at the level of 20% to 30%. In the process. Electronic payment cryptographic devices with a single function will gradually be replaced by comprehensive electronic payment password payers with more complete and powerful functions. The company has always been at the forefront of the market in developing new products. The accelerated launch of new products and channel construction have made it more realistic to further increase the company's market share.

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