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【申银万国证券】蓝英装备:三季报预告下滑符合预期,2.6亿公司债申请获批,维持“买入”

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

In the first three quarters of the company's announcement, net profit is expected to fall by 10%-30% year on year, in line with expectations. At the same time, the company's non-public issuance of no more than 260 million corporate bonds was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. Due to delays in revenue confirmation for the Shenyang Hunnan New Town integrated pipe gallery project in the first half of 2014, the company achieved net profit of 15.11 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and a net profit of 27.96 million yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. Judging from the forecast, the third quarter will achieve net profit of 29-12.68 million yuan in a single quarter, so the year-on-year data is not significant. According to the previous supplementary project agreement, the first phase of the pipe gallery was delivered and entered into the repurchase period at the end of October 2013. On October 31, 2014, 2015, and 2016, the actual increase in project settlement was calculated separately; the second phase will enter the repurchase period on June 30, 2015, and the remaining 260 million yuan will be paid over three years. The supplementary agreement resolved the market's questions about the difficulties in repayment of government projects. The availability of capital and approval of the issuance of 260 million corporate bonds also provided a basis for the company to sign other BT projects. The potential market capacity of the urban pipe gallery exceeds 50 billion yuan, the Hunnan project has a national demonstration effect, there are plenty of orders for integrated tire molding machines and automation systems, and the digital factory is poised to go. In September 2013, the State Council issued “Opinions on Strengthening Urban Infrastructure Construction”, which plans to fully launch underground integrated pipe gallery pilot projects in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country in about 3 years. Based on only a rough estimate of 36 pilot projects in large and medium-sized cities, the potential market demand is at least 50 billion yuan. Currently, construction has begun or is planned in many cities (Baotou, Hohhot, Nanning, Guangzhou, etc.). The core of the company's business is based on automation technology, and the machinery division focuses on technology research and development and equipment manufacturing. The tire molding machine will regain growth in 2014 and is expected to nearly double in 2014, and the system integration division is expected to provide control system solutions for customers (electricity, metallurgy, municipal administration, etc.) to grow 30%. The digital factory has achieved revenue of 7 million in 14 years, and is poised to go. Maintain the buy rating. We maintain the judgment that the company's net profit from 2014 to 2016 was 1.1/1.59/205 million yuan, and EPS (after 10 transitions to 5 dilution) was 0.41/0.59/0.76 yuan. We believe that the company is a high-quality enterprise that spans high-end equipment manufacturing, smart cities, and digital factories based on automation technology. The lack of performance expectations due to delays in early projects has been fully reflected in stock prices. Uncertainties about the return of capital have been eliminated, and corporate bonds have been approved. We are optimistic about the company's ability and speed of expansion in new fields and projects. Currently, the total market value of 4.4 billion dollars has huge room for growth, maintaining a “buy” rating.

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