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【申万宏源】天山生物:与百度、中信合作开发牛羊肉众筹项目,维持增持评级

申萬宏源 ·  Sep 7, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company announced that it will cooperate with Baidu and CITIC to develop a beef crowdfunding project. In order to further promote the implementation of the Big Beef Cow (Goat) strategy, the company signed the “Internet Finance Crowdfunding Consumer Products Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” with Baidu Network News and CITIC Trust, and will carry out long-term, comprehensive, and in-depth strategic cooperation with Beijing Baidu Netcom Technology Co., Ltd. (affiliated with Baidu Group) and CITIC Trust Co., Ltd. in the field of beef (expanding to lamb in the future) consumer crowdfunding. The crowdfunding model is expected to solve the difficulties and pain points in the layout of the beef cattle (sheep) industry. The beef cattle market has a large space, but the breeding cycle is long (from cows to fattening cows for more than 3 years), capital investment is large, and competition in the downstream brand meat market is fierce. Using the form of consumer crowdfunding, it is hoped that the above problems will be solved. In terms of product attributes, there are many grades of beef, and there are large differences in consumer groups. Through online crowdfunding platforms, more consumers of different types are gathered and services are carried out in a differentiated manner. Consumers pay cash during crowdfunding. The company invests this part of the capital in introduction and breeding, reducing financial pressure. At the same time, it has targeted consumers before the product is marketed to determine production. Once beef is marketed, it can be shipped and delivered quickly to confirm revenue. The partners solved sales and financial issues separately, and the big beef cattle (sheep) industry continued to strengthen. Currently, the company's main business is the production and sale of frozen beef cattle and dairy milk concentrate, but since the big beef cattle strategy was proposed at the end of 2013, it has already had sufficient talent and technical reserves in the field of beef cattle and sheep farming, and there will also be arrangements for land resource acquisition in the future. As a technology and production enterprise, the company's current major beef cattle strategy is lacking in marketing, channel expansion, and financial services. Baidu and CITIC can solve the above problems separately: Baidu Netcom (affiliated with Baidu Group) will use the Internet service platform in this cooperation to provide services including crowdfunding platform construction, search priority ranking, etc., and platform channel services for consumer voucher sales agencies such as online sales, marketing, brand promotion, and online payment; in this cooperation, CITIC Trust will serve as a financial institution service platform to provide comprehensive financial solutions for various businesses operating in accordance with the law, financial trust plan creation and operation, fund supervision and management, consumer rights trust management, etc. In terms of specific cooperation methods, Tianshan Biotech will act as a sales agency to sell vouchers for Angus beef and organic lamb meat products on Baidu Baidu's online front desk system. The pre-sale funds from the sale of consumer vouchers are used for the breeding and production of beef and lamb products by Tianshan Biotech and its affiliates through a financial trust plan set up by CITIC Trust. Consumer rights of consumers are managed uniformly by CITIC Trust through civil trusts and business trusts. CITIC Trust oversees the fulfillment of consumers' consumer rights through the execution of a financial trust plan for pre-sale funds. Pay attention to the possibility that the Big Beef Cow (Sheep) strategy may exceed expectations, and you can take the opportunity to increase your holdings. The company is fully prepared for the implementation of the big beef cattle strategy: 1) Newbies have introduced breeding technical personnel in the past two years; 2) since this year, it has introduced about 13,000 to 14,000 breeding cows, and is expected to enter 2.6/3/32,000 Angus breeders in 15-17, respectively, and Angus beef cattle are expected to reach 2000/6,000/15,000 heads respectively (flexible; if sales volume and price are particularly good, they may be able to breed cows and sell them as beef cows). Angus breeders are characterized by fresh meat quality and high meat yield. Representative of; 3) Previously A total of 84,500 mu of land held by the majority shareholders were purchased in the form of additional grants. It is planned to be used for forage production and fattening farm construction in the future, and it is still expected that land resources will continue to be obtained in the future; 4) Cooperation intentions have been reached with 100 farmers for cooperative fattening. The company has entered the beef cattle breeding industry, with an annual domestic output value of nearly 1 trillion yuan, a significant increase in market space compared to the domestic cattle breeding industry with an annual output value of about 500 million yuan; the company's current market capitalization is about 2.58 billion yuan, which has the advantage of “small market value and large industry”. Without considering mergers and acquisitions, we estimate that in 15-18, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 500/4478/11266/229.2 million yuan. Consider issuing an additional fully diluted EPS of 0.024/0.22/0.56/1.14 yuan and a price-earnings ratio of 690/63/25/12. Investors are advised to pay attention! Maintain your Overweight Rating!

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