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【申银万国证券】华昌达:深耕主营行业,播种新兴领域,合理价格15-18.2元

申萬宏源 ·  Dec 2, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leading supplier of intelligent automation equipment system integration in China. The main business includes automated assembly production lines, automated welding production lines, and automated coating production lines. It mainly provides a complete set of solutions for intelligent automated equipment systems for automobile and construction machinery manufacturers. The compound growth rate of the company's revenue in the past three years was 110%. The reduction in downstream external dependence will bring opportunities for the development of the industry. Currently, intelligent automated equipment systems are mainly used in the automobile manufacturing industry. The company's automobile industry revenue in the past three years has exceeded 90%. Investment in equipment in the automobile manufacturing industry will directly affect industry trends for a long time to come. In 2010, the market demand for three types of automated equipment systems for automobile assembly, welding and coating production lines in China was 50.8 billion yuan, of which 70% came from foreign imports, while the outline of the country's medium- and long-term development plan indicates that in 2020, the dependence on foreign technology should be reduced to less than 30%. According to estimates of the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the automobile industry of 15-20%, the compound growth rate of future demand for domestic automation equipment systems is 25%-30%, providing an excellent opportunity for the long-term development of the industry. Construction machinery is gaining strength, and there are now opportunities in emerging fields. Domestic fixed investment is growing steadily, and demand in the construction machinery manufacturing industry is strong. Major leading enterprises such as Sany, Zhonglian, and XCMG are focusing on expanding production capacity. Gradual upgrading and technological transformation of their production lines will provide sufficient space for automated equipment systems; while the continuous improvement in production efficiency and service quality requirements in emerging fields such as logistics warehousing, home appliances and electronics, and modern farming will also bring new surprises to the company's industry. The company's market share has increased steadily, and the order amount has increased rapidly. Through years of technology accumulation, the company has gradually enhanced its full system integration and overall solution solution capabilities, and has become an important domestic system integration supplier. Its market share increased from 0.48% in 2008 to 1.09% in 2010, growing rapidly and with broad scope for improvement. The company held orders of 260 million yuan in January-June and 420 million yuan as of November. The order situation is abundant, which guarantees rapid growth in the company's performance next year. Fund-raising projects help the company expand production capacity, alleviate the current shortage of equipment production capacity, and at the same time help the company increase its market share and further enhance its position in the industry. The recommended inquiry range is 15 to 18.2 yuan. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS in 2011, 2012, and 2013 to be 0.65 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.10 yuan. A reasonable inquiry range is between 15 and 18.2 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 23 to 28 times in 2011 and a price-earnings ratio of 16.7 to 20.2 times in 2012.

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