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【海通证券】蓝英装备:莫教浮云遮望眼,待到雾散见天晴

海通證券 ·  Aug 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Overview of events. The company released its 2015 semi-annual report on August 20, 2015, and achieved operating income of RMB 23.81 million, a year-on-year decrease of 28.25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 31.6 million, a year-on-year decrease of 26.58%, which is at a low level of -10% to -30% in the semi-annual performance forecast. The company's pipe gallery project revenue was 6.6 million yuan, a decrease of 94.69% over the same period; intelligent machinery and equipment was renamed rubber intelligent equipment, with revenue of 87.19 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.59%; electrical automation and integration revenue was 64.25 million yuan, an increase of 1.61% over the same period; and digital factory revenue was 66.74 million yuan, an increase of 824.69%. 。 The company signed the Hunnan New Town Integrated Pipeline Project in 2012. The first phase of the project was delivered in 2013, generating revenue of 258 million yuan and 593 million yuan respectively in 2012-2013. The second phase of the project, which was originally scheduled to be delivered in 2013, was delayed for some reason, causing fluctuations in revenue recognition. The extension of the project caused a sharp decline in smart city revenue in the first half of this year, with revenue of only 6.6 million. However, according to calculations, the second phase of the project still has about 87 million remaining revenue. At the same time, the company signed a sewage treatment plant project framework agreement in June 2015, with a total investment of 39.7 million yuan. With years of project experience and technology accumulation, the smart city business will enter a steady state. Orders surged in, and the fund-raising project reached production. The company announced a number of large orders, signed a variable frequency conversion and energy-saving transformation contract of 29.58 million yuan in May 2015, a contract for a three-dimensional warehouse of 1 million semi-steel tires worth 50 million yuan in June 2015, and a contract for an automated logistics system of 79.5 million yuan. At the same time, the company raised capital to invest in projects - the energy-consuming industrial intelligent unit integrated system industrialization project and the fully automatic radial tire molding machine industrialization project - were completed and put into operation in 2014, increasing the company's production capacity. Considering the degree of prosperity in the downstream automobile industry, it may affect the revenue of tire molding machines this year. A new business has taken the stage to sing, and the “smart” industry has great prospects. The company's digital factory business increased in large orders and achieved explosive growth, achieving revenue of 66.74 million yuan, an increase of 824.69% over the same period last year, with obvious business expansion results. The company focuses on technology research and development. It has products such as special equipment for high-end HD-3G tire molding machines, leading domestic industrialization projects for energy-consuming industrial intelligent unit integration systems, and flexible industrial material conveying systems. Adapting to Industry 4.0 and future industrial development trends will make a big difference. Profit forecast: The company is gradually getting rid of revenue fluctuations, and large orders continue, production capacity is rising, and digital factories, precision machinery, logistics automation, etc. are gradually releasing profits. According to the current progress of the company's various businesses, we estimate that the company achieved a net profit of 86.99 million yuan in 2015 and 0.32, 0.45, and 0.57 yuan in EPS in 15-17, respectively, giving a PE valuation of 60 times in 2016, with a target price of 27 yuan, giving it an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: Macroeconomic downturn, order confirmation revenue falls short of expectations, and smart city projects are postponed.

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