Valuation advice.
According to comprehensive analysis, we expect the company's revenue from 2014 to 2016 to 683 million, 717 and 789 million yuan respectively, up 3.14%, 5.00% and 9.88%, respectively. Net profit was 40.45, 47.03 and 82.59 million yuan respectively, up 893.28%, 16.25% and 75.62% year-on-year respectively.
Based on the absolute valuation and relative valuation methods, we think it is reasonable to give the company stock a price of 16.76 yuan within the reasonable valuation range of 1,078 to 20.77 yuan. The corresponding market value of the company is 1,489 billion to 2,869 million yuan and 2,315 billion yuan.
The main point of view.
The company's main products are metal alloys (mainly silver) contact functional materials, which are mainly used in low voltage electrical equipment. The price of the company's products fluctuates with fluctuations in the price of silver. Therefore, as international silver prices fell, the company's product prices and operating income declined, and as the total inventory volume increased due to the expansion of production, inventory impairment expanded as the decline in silver prices increased.
However, we believe that the company's overall business situation is stable, demand in the downstream market is stable, and there is limited room for silver prices to decline in the future. As the company's future product technology content and component shipments increase, it is expected that its product bargaining power and sensitivity to silver prices will gradually increase.
Currently, the company's overall valuation is becoming reasonable, and its profitability is gradually returning to pre-listing levels. The overall size has doubled since before listing. If the price of silver rises, it will have an obvious driving effect on the company's revenue. In the range where the price of silver is relatively low, it will have a positive effect on profits.
risk factors.
The company's downstream customers are concentrated, and the revenue of the top five largest customers has reached 70% in total. Fluctuations in silver prices have a great impact on fluctuations in the company's operating income and operating costs, and have a certain impact on net profit.
