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【安信证券】华昌达新股询价报告:国内自动化装备领域的领跑者

安信證券 ·  Dec 2, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company is an intelligent automation equipment system integration supplier. The company's main business is the R&D, design, production and sales of intelligent automated equipment systems, including automated assembly production lines, automated welding production lines, automated coating production lines, etc., which are widely used in various fields such as automobile manufacturing, construction machinery, logistics and warehousing, home appliances and electronics, and modern farming. Among them, the automobile industry is the most prominent, accounting for about 40% of the total investment in automated equipment. The company's main revenue comes from the automobile industry and construction machinery. Revenue from the automobile sector accounts for more than 93% of revenue, which is the main source of the company's revenue, and will expand into other fields and project contracts in the future. Investment in the downstream industry continues to grow, and there is broad scope for equipment demand. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the fixed asset investment amount of China's automobile manufacturing industry will reach 1,134.9 billion yuan, and the fixed asset investment of the four major automation equipment will reach 567.5 billion yuan. Currently, China's automobile industry equipment dependence on external technology is about 70%, and it will fall below 30% by 2020, so there is broad scope for future import substitution. According to the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the construction machinery industry, the sales scale of China's construction machinery industry reached 900 billion yuan by 2015. Major domestic construction machinery engineering enterprises are investing in plans to expand production, which will provide a broad market space for automated equipment for mechanical equipment. The company's overall technical advantages are obvious, and it has high-quality customer resources in the industry. Currently, there are only a few highly competitive system integration suppliers and overall solution solvers in China. The company's core competitive advantage is that it can provide one-stop integrated solutions according to customer needs; it has 9 utility model patents and 3 computer software copyrights. It has established good and stable business partnerships with well-known domestic and foreign automobile manufacturers such as Dongfeng Motor, Zhengzhou Nissan, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Jirui United Heavy Industries, Chongqing Ruichi Automobile, and Vietnam Chenggong, and has developed high-quality customers in the construction machinery industry such as Sany Heavy Industries. The fund-raising project broke through bottlenecks in production capacity development and helped the company grow rapidly. The capital raised this time will be invested in the “automated equipment production line construction project” to expand and strengthen the company's existing main business. The project will add 7, 5, and 6 automated assembly production lines, and 6, respectively, for a total of 18 automatic production lines, an average annual increase in revenue of 342.16 million yuan, and an average annual net profit of 54.22 million yuan, which can effectively make up for the current shortage of production capacity on market development and sales revenue growth, and further increase the company's market share. The recommended inquiry range is 14.95-16.9 yuan. We expect the company's revenue growth rates to be 98.5%, 35.3%, and 19.7% in 2011-2013, and net profit to increase by 83.3%, 40.6%, and 22.6% respectively, to achieve EPS of 0.65, 0.92, and 1.12 yuan, respectively, and a compound net profit growth rate of 30% over the next three years. Taking into account the valuation level of comparable companies, we believe that it is relatively reasonable to give the company 23-26 times dynamic PE in 2011. The corresponding reasonable value range is 14.95-16.9 yuan, the PE range corresponding to the 2012 expectations is 16.3-18.4 times, and the market price range on the first day of listing is 17.25-20.28 yuan. Risk warning: 1. Risk of downstream industries being affected by capacity expansion and slowing investment growth; 2. Risk of high customer concentration; 3. Risk of overseas expansion; 4. Risk of industry and market competition.

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