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【国泰君安证券】仟源制药新股询价定价分析报告:半合成青霉素复方制剂市场新贵

國泰君安 ·  Aug 4, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company has five types of anti-infective drugs with market share in the top three in the country. In 2009, it ranked in the top ten of the national penicillin market and the semi-synthetic penicillin compound drug market. Six people, including Weng Zhanguo, held a total of 64.17% of the shares before issuance, and were the joint controlling shareholders and actual controllers. From 2008 to 2010, the compound growth rates of operating income and net profit reached 25.3% and 91.9% respectively. In 2010, revenue was 319 million yuan, up 31.2% year on year; net profit was 48 million yuan, up 66.0% year on year. Anti-infective drugs have always accounted for around 80% of revenue. Among them, injectable meloxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, injectable amoxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, and injectable aztreonam are the company's current main varieties. The anti-infective drug market will maintain an annual growth rate of more than 10% for a long time to come. The company's strategy focuses on semi-synthetic penicillin compound preparations with good antibacterial resistance, and the market share rose from 3.79% in 2007 to 4.71% in 2009. The main varieties, meloxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, amoxicillin sodium, and sulbactam sodium, rank second in the country in market share. Competitive advantages: 1. The company's entry into penicillin compound formulations will benefit from industry policy orientation in the future; 2. It has certain R&D capabilities and a rich product range; 3. The “refined value-creating investment model” is unique. The company's fund-raising projects are mainly used to expand the production capacity of penicillin powder injections, non-blue oral preparations, and fosfomycin trobutriol APIs. Business risk: risk of new product development and marketing, risk of competitive risk in the market of advantageous products, risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of fluctuations in the price of raw materials, policy changes in the basic drug system, risk of risk of policy changes in the basic drug system. Venture capital suggestions: The company's valuation level is expected to be 0.41/0.59/0.72 yuan in 11-13, respectively. We believe that the company's valuation level is 22-27 times PE in 2011, which is more reasonable, and the estimated inquiry range is 9.02 to 11.07.

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