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【渤海证券】仟源制药:独辟蹊径的多元化抗生素企业

渤海證券 ·  Aug 5, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Key points: Xiqianyuan Pharmaceutical, a pioneering diversified antibiotic manufacturer, specializes in the development, production, and sale of semi-synthetic penicillins, monocyclic lactams, and phosphomycin-resistant anti-infective drugs. The controlling shareholders of the company are six co-actors, including Weng Zhanguo. After the IPO was issued, the six co-actors held 47.96% of the shares and still controlled the company. Among them, the largest shareholder, Mr. Weng Zhanguo, held 11.51% of the shares. Characteristics of the company The company's semi-synthetic penicillin series products account for 60% of revenue all year round, and the gross profit contribution is as high as 73%. We believe that in the future growth of semi-synthetic penicillin products, the company will mainly rely on two products, amoxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, and meloxicillin sodium and sulbactam sodium to achieve major growth in performance. The company is a diversified small pharmaceutical company that has pioneered a new approach and focuses on the production and sale of penicillin-based anti-infective drugs. In the development process, the company did not switch to high-end antibiotic varieties such as cephalosporins, which have always been popular and have high added value. Instead, it continues to cultivate new products and is selling well on common penicillin-resistant antibiotics. Many varieties have obvious advantages in the domestic market, and this time they may fully enjoy the preferential market space for the country to strictly regulate the use of cephalosporin antibiotics, and the company's new varieties and diversified operations have begun to bear fruit. Future performance will grow steadily and reliably. Once the market presents opportunities or rapid development, it is recommended to pay attention, and a certain premium may be given. Profit forecast and valuation We expect the company's revenue to increase by 24%, 25%, 25% over the next 11-13 years, net profit by 22%, 24%, 25%, and EPS (diluted) of 0.44, 0.54, and 0.68 yuan/share. Give 30 times PE in 2012, with a target price of 16.2 yuan.

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