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【中信证券】仟源制药新股询价报告:青霉素复方制剂龙头企业

中信證券 ·  Aug 3, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leading enterprise in the production of antibiotic preparations. The company takes providing “comprehensive products and solutions to the problem of bacterial drug resistance” as its strategic core. The market shares of injectable meloxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, injectable amoxicillin sodium, sulbactam sodium, injectable aztreonam, injectable meloxicillin sodium, and injectable alloxillin sodium rank in the top three in the country. The company grew steadily. The compound growth rate of operating income from 2008 to 2010 reached 25.26%, and the compound growth rate of net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss reached 99.96%. The antibiotic market is developing steadily. The domestic pharmaceutical industry is growing steadily, and it is anticipated that antibiotics may become the largest variety in the Chinese pharmaceutical market in the next five years, with a compound growth rate of 16.62% from 2006 to 2009. Semisynthetic penicillin compound preparations are expected to be less affected by antibiotic abuse control, and the company's sales growth rate is faster than the overall market growth rate. The overall growth rate of the aztreonam market reached 72.70%. The company's market share declined due to limited production capacity. Fosfomycin trobutriol is in the beginning stage of the market, and the company's sales volume is growing rapidly. The company has outstanding profitability and unique investment marketing. The company uses semisynthetic penicillin compound preparations with high added value as the main source of profit, and the profit margin is significantly higher than the industry average. The company adopted a refined value-generating investment model, built a flat marketing network, and covered a wide range of products throughout the country. Fund-raising project analysis: expand production capacity, meet demand, and tap profit. The “Annual Penicillin Powder Production Line Construction Project”, the “Non-green Oral Formulation Production Line Construction Project”, and the “Annual Production Line Construction Project for Panicillin and Trimethylene Glycol” will increase powder injection production capacity by 166.67%, solid preparation production capacity by 101.67%, and API production capacity by 250%. It is estimated that sales revenue will be increased by a total of 636 million yuan each year. In 2013-2015, the post-delivery increase in EPS reached 0.54 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.72 yuan. risk factors. The equity structure spreads risk. After this issuance, the company's largest shareholder held only 11.51% of the shares; the risk of product marketing for fund-raising projects, the amount of application of phosphomycin in the domestic market is still small, and marketing is risky; there is a risk of product price reduction. Most of the company's products fall under the medical insurance catalogue, and prices may be forced to be reduced. Earnings forecasts and valuations. We expect the company's EPS for 2011-13 to be 0.42, 0.59, and 0.81 yuan, respectively. Compared with eight companies including Laimei Pharmaceutical, considering the current pricing level of IPO, the valuation was 30-35 times the 2011 performance, and the relative valuation method determined that the company's target price was 12.66-14.77 yuan. DCF estimates that the company's internal value is 13.97 yuan. The company's reasonable valuation range is 12.66-14.77 yuan, corresponding to 30-35 times PE in 2011. The recommended inquiry range is 12.03-14.03 yuan.

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