Main points of investment
Old customers and new products help the company slowly recover revenue the company's traditional hardware and software products recover slowly due to downstream inventory digestion; the company launches more business cooperation with core customers (Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology and Xugong Group). Such as private cloud and warehouse management, spare parts management, etc., it is expected to generate stable income in the future.
Agricultural machinery information starts, grab 10 billion market scale land reform, agricultural land contracting, improve China's agricultural efficiency is imperative, agricultural machinery information potential space of about 19 billion yuan, Tianze information first layout, with the global agricultural machinery information leader Topcan (global agricultural machinery information income 794 million U.S. dollars, China about 40 million U.S. dollars income) cooperation, it is estimated that 2014 contribution income 12.1 million yuan, 2020 profit is expected to exceed 200 million yuan.
"Yuntong" is expected to become a mobile logistics matchmaking platform to improve the logistics efficiency on a scale of 197.8 trillion. Yuntong has well solved the problem of information asymmetry between the supply side and the demand side of logistics. The more supply and demand parties gathered in the future, the stronger the bargaining power of Tianze information, the more the commission may be levied for the logistics transaction scale of 5% in the future. Assuming that 5% of the logistics is completed online, Yuntong gains 30% of the share. There is a contribution income of 2.97 billion yuan and a contribution profit of about 1 billion yuan, but the development of Yuntong is still in its infancy, and it remains to be seen whether it can become a leader.
To start the acquisition strategy, Shangyou Group is only the first step to acquire Shangyou Group, which can strengthen the company's software development strength and strengthen the strength of providing one-stop solutions. Shangyou Group promises that the profits for 2014-2016 will not be less than 30 million yuan, 36 million yuan and 40 million yuan, respectively, so that Tianze information's profits will be relatively guaranteed in the next few years. In terms of 30x PE, it can contribute 9-1 billion market value to Tianze information. From the point of view of this round of M & A, after the listed companies start the M & A strategy, it is generally continuous M & A. in order to complete the car networking strategy, there are many points that the company needs to make up, such as the RFID system in the car network, network analysis big data technology and so on.
Profit forecast and valuation estimate that the income of Tianze Information in 2014-16 is 376 million yuan, 582 million yuan and 673 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.29,0.58,0.77 yuan respectively. We use DCF valuation method to get the target price of Tianze information is 24.38 yuan, corresponding to the previous stock price growth of 33%, give the company a buy rating. The target price corresponds to the 2014 / 15 EPS of 90 and 63 times respectively, the valuation level of PE is not low, but the market capitalization is small, and it is reasonable to have a certain liquidity premium.