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【宏源证券】飞力达:经营改善,扩张渐显成效

宏源證券 ·  Feb 18, 2014 00:00  · Researches

External expansion and internal repairs, and the main integrated logistics industry is expected to regain its upward trend in 2014. The sharp decline in the business volume of the company's core customers, Acer and Asus, dragged down performance. We believe that although the pressure on the business environment facing the company's integrated warehousing logistics in '14 is still very high, the overall pressure on the company's integrated warehousing logistics in '14 will be better than in '13. First, storage demand has passed a historic low, and is expected to achieve a breakthrough in incremental major customers; second, the profit scale of the Chongqing branch, which expanded externally, is expected to increase dramatically in 2014. Weichuang FTL and Asus motherboard projects are gradually maturing; then the company reduced costs and increased efficiency through internal cost reduction, such as withdrawing some of its leasing capacity, etc. improve management by losing business, etc., Improve the profitability of the main business. Under the influence of a combination of factors, the main business will regain its upward trend in 2014. The basic logistics business environment is gradually improving. We believe that in 2014, under the trend of slow economic recovery in Europe and the US, the volume and price of the company's shipping business is expected to rise sharply, while the worst stage of the air transport business also gradually passed. The operating environment for the air and sea freight forwarding business gradually improved in 2014, so it is expected that losses or even a small profit will be reduced. Cross-industry replication is progressing gradually, and the contribution of new profit growth points is imminent. The first phase of the 200-mu Q4 Rongda Logistics Park is expected to launch this year, mainly commodity futures delivery depots, bonded warehouses, and spot trading centers. The annual delivery volume reaches 2 million tons, and is expected to reach a net profit scale of 50 million after full production. Starting at the end of the year, it will gradually become a new profit point for the company. The Kunshan Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Pilot Zone is expected to bring new development opportunities: we believe that the company, as the leader of IT bonded warehousing and integrated logistics services in the Kunshan region, is expected to gain some development opportunities in this round of the Kunshan Cross-Strait Economic Pilot Zone to deepen cooperation from new major customers, expand industrial chain services, and enter into new logistics service fields. The company's 14-15 EPS is expected to be 0.63 and 0.77 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price of 21x14PE, respectively, and the company's operations improved in 2014. Early expansion gradually showed results, and there is a high probability of performance reversal. In the future, the commissioning of Rongda Logistics Park will contribute to new profit growth points, and the Kunshan Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Experimental Zone is expected to bring new development opportunities to the company. Combined with the relatively low valuation level of the logistics industry, it will be given a “buy” rating for the first time for the first time.

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