Comments:
The performance is basically in line with expectations. The current performance forecast is basically in line with expectations, and we maintain our profit forecast for the whole year. Calculate the EPS0.24 yuan for the whole of 2012 according to the new equity after the conversion.
The impact of downstream capsules promotes industry integration. After the poison capsule incident, the price of each capsule with better quality in the industry rose from 0.7 points to 1 point, and individual enterprise capsules rose to 1.30 points, but in view of the current consideration of the price and volume impact of downstream pharmaceutical enterprises, we believe that the current price of capsules at 0.90-1 cents belongs to a reasonable range. At present, gelatin capsules are still the mainstream, and the short-term improvement space of plant capsules such as potatoes is still limited. The output of gelatin produced by blue alum skin (including industrial use) is about 56-60 000 tons. The country will still take bone gelatin as the main development strategy in the future market in the medium and long term. From the supply of raw materials, the production capacity of bone gelatin is expected to be 100000 tons (including 80, 000 tons of cattle shares). The release of new equipment production capacity in the gelatin market will be concentrated in 2013, with an estimated capacity of 20,000 tons. After the capsule industry is standardized, the short-term gap for upstream gelatin will continue, which will promote the industry integration expectations and increase the value of the industry. In view of the low price competition in the previous industry, we expect the price increase at 20-30% is more reasonable.
Capsule industry consolidation is expected to increase upstream demand. At present, foreign capital accounts for about 65% of the gelatin market, and the main gathering places are Zhejiang, Northeast and Northwest. Among domestic enterprises, Dongbao Biology and Qinghai Gelatin have relatively large production capacity, but at present, domestic enterprises are mainly small enterprises, with a production capacity of about 1000 tons. The downstream capsule industry will further promote the integration of the capsule industry itself after the poison capsule time. Driving the increase in the amount of upstream standard gelatin, the industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 12-15% in the future, slightly higher than the previous growth rate of about 10%.
Collagen to enhance the added value: the company raised and put into production of collagen project, about 200 tons, the existing collagen products including collagen powder, mask, eye cream, oral liquid and so on. The company will further enrich the collagen product series in the future, which will promote the sales of the products in the existing channels and greatly improve the performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we predict that the net profit attributed to the parent company will increase by 49.15% and 29.42% year-on-year from 2012 to 2013. According to the new equity after the conversion, the EPS is 0.24,0.31 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 78.79,59.09 times. No rating for the time being. Can continue to pay attention to risk tips: new product expansion is lower than expected and so on.
