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【国金证券】飞力达:最坏的时候或已过去,14年业绩有望回升

國金證券 ·  Apr 15, 2014 09:00  · Researches

Brief performance review. In 2013, the company achieved revenue of 2,366 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.08%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -47.2%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.32 yuan. At the same time, the company announced its 2014 quarterly report, which achieved revenue of 681 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of 49.5%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.818 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -37.5%; the performance was in line with market expectations. Business analysis. The decline in performance is mainly due to the pressure on the main business and the decline in financial subsidies: according to our general division of business, basic logistics, integrated logistics, and financial subsidies contributed roughly 40%, 40%, and 20% to the decline in performance. Basic logistics: Mainly the shipping & air freight forwarding business, affected by sluggish demand in the international freight forwarding industry in 2013, gross margin fell to 10.6% in 2013 from 13.0% in 2012, which is the main reason for the decline in performance. Among them, we judge that the decline in the performance of the air freight forwarding business is even more obvious. Integrated logistics: Mainly warehousing and logistics. Affected by the downturn and westward migration of the IT manufacturing industry, the decline in the business volume of the company's main customers, Acer and Asus, became the main reason for the decline on the revenue side, while the shift in the company's product structure from mainly brands to ODM manufacturers caused a clear decline in gross margin. Financial aid: In 2013, it fell from 21.45 million yuan to 13.42 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.03 million yuan, which is also the reason for the decline in performance. Judging from the net profit attributable to the parent company, Feilik Warehousing declined by 16.55 million yuan, the parent company (mainly basic logistics business) fell by 21.31 million yuan, the Nanjing Company fell 7.6 million yuan, and the Eurasian Express fell 7.84 million yuan, which were the main points of decline in performance. Negative factors are expected to abate: the 13-year constraints were the downturn in the IT manufacturing industry and the migration of IT to the west, which caused the company's warehousing business, mainly in Kunshan, to be impacted; looking ahead to 14 years, we judge that the westward IT migration has basically been completed, and the company's shift to ODM vendor business is expected to weaken the impact of the downturn in the IT manufacturing industry. There was an increase in performance in 2014: We expect that the Nanjing company's loss reduction, the Changzhou Rongda delivery depot, and the Shenzhen Asus main board project will increase performance in 14 years, and we believe that the company's cross-industry replication is still worth looking forward to with its excellent warehousing management and company popularity. Nanjing company reduces losses: It is expected that the company will withdraw from previous loss-making projects in 2014, thus reversing the current situation of negative contributions to the region's performance. Changzhou Rongda Project: The company holds 51% of the shares and mainly cooperates with the Shanghai Futures Exchange to set up a metal futures delivery market in Changzhou. The net profit is expected to be in the 1 million yuan level this year. Shenzhen Asus Project: It is expected that in 2014, along with the increase in business volume, the Asus motherboard project will turn a loss into a profit and begin to contribute to performance. The company stated in its annual report that it will increase its development efforts in new industries, focusing on e-commerce, auto parts, communications, precision instruments and other industries. We believe that the company has excellent warehousing management capabilities, and that cross-industry business expansion is still worth looking forward to. There is room for improvement in operating efficiency: We expect that the sharp decline in 2013 performance will help motivate companies to further improve operating efficiency, as evidenced by the year-on-year decline in management expenses in 2013 and the company's hiring of management consulting firms to help the company deepen internal reforms. Profit adjustments and investment advice. We forecast that the company's 2014-2016 EPS will be 0.41 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.5%, 31.1%, and 33.0%. Currently, the corresponding valuations are 28×14PE, 21×15PE, and 16×16PE, maintaining the “increased holding” rating

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