Main points of investment:
The traditional main business will stabilize and pick up in the past 14 years, and the traditional products can be expanded in many fields. (1) the traditional business will stabilize and pick up with the improvement of the prosperity of the machinery industry. (2) in the field of construction machinery, the traditional products are expected to expand smoothly from the original excavator to other construction machinery vehicles. (3) in addition to the field of deep digging construction machinery, the company will rapidly expand into the fields of elevators, agricultural machinery and commercial vehicles.
The traditional business is deeply bound to the manufacturer, and the company has the first-mover advantage in the process of post-market informatization. First, the company has a 50% market share in the excavator segment. High market share is a high recognition of the company's technical level. Second, the company's products successfully entered the front market from the construction machinery afterloading market, and the customer stickiness was improved. Third, the strategic cooperation agreement is deeply bound to manufacturers, Zoomlion and Xugong stock and incremental vehicle health data will be imported into Tianze data center, and the company's vehicle health data will be accumulated into the fast lane. Fourth, if you master the operation data of the vehicle, you will have the stepping stone to the post-market. When manufacturers consider ensuring that the relevant service data of the post-market can be interconnected with the front-end data, priority will be given to further in-depth cooperation with the company in the post-market area. Once this first-mover advantage forms a scale effect, it will have a very high barrier.
The service link for the manufacturer extends from the single sales link to the after-sales link, which is the key move for the company to actively layout the post-market. In the after-sales field, on the one hand, it is to get through the end-users, by pushing the vehicle data to the users to meet the needs of users for real-time monitoring of vehicle location information and health status, so as to help users to manage the vehicles in a fine way. On the other hand, the company develops new products such as intelligent warehouse and after-sales communication to help manufacturers improve the level of after-sales service, so that customers can not only understand the working status of vehicles and manage vehicles efficiently, but also enjoy fast and convenient after-sales service of the original factory. reduce the loss of delay due to damage to parts.
The vast market space helps the development of the company. (1) the stock market space of the company's vehicle information terminal products in the field of construction machinery (excluding excavators), elevators, agricultural machinery and heavy trucks reached 4.478 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, 17.897 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively. (2) the new market space in the above expansion areas reaches 774 million yuan, 530 million yuan, 802 million yuan and 630 million yuan respectively. (3) the market space of wisdom warehouse and after-sales communication is 5 billion yuan and 179 million yuan.
(1) higher performance flexibility. Whether it is the cross-domain expansion of traditional products, or the cross-vendor expansion of smart warehouse and after-sales business, the future sales flexibility is greater, if the channel expansion exceeds expectations and can smoothly enter the quasi-preloading market and after-sales links of more manufacturers, it is expected to bring rich performance contributions to listed companies. (2) performance. Assuming that the company completes the business friend acquisition in 14 years, and the equity increases to 173 million and the second half of the year begins to merge, it is expected that the net profit in 14 and 15 years will be 45 million yuan and 88 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 560.3% and 93.6% in 14 and 15 years, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 52 times and 26 times respectively, taking into account the company's strategic layout and greater performance flexibility in the field of car networking. And the current valuation is undervalued compared with its growth ability, giving a "buy" investment rating.
Risk tips: the prosperity of the construction machinery industry continues to decline; the company's new business development is not up to expectations; there is uncertainty in the acquisition of business friends.
