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【国信证券】天晟新材2014年1季报点评:业绩逐步改善,经营持续回暖

國信證券 ·  Apr 24, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Maintain the recommended rating with a reasonable valuation of 12.4 yuan in the short term. The recovery of wind power has brought about a recovery at the bottom of the structural bubble, which is expected to usher in a sharp rise in prices; in the short to medium term, post-processing business is “short and fast”, consolidating the foundation of performance; and in the medium to long term, epitaxial expansion to build a new blue ocean. The EPS for 14-16 is expected to be 0.18, 0.31, and 0.46 yuan respectively, giving a 15-year 40 xPE, and a reasonable valuation of 12.4 yuan. Strong optimism and recommended ratings. Losses were successfully reversed in the first quarter. In line with expectations, 14Q1 achieved revenue of 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1.87%; net profit was 2.1 million yuan, reversing the loss trend since 13H1. Among them, non-recurring profit and loss contributed about 16 million yuan to profit. Net operating cash flow for the first quarter was about -24 million yuan, a significant improvement over the previous month from -36 million yuan in 13Q4, and operating fundamentals are gradually improving. The volume increase in structural bubbles and price increases are expected to come in the 2-3 quarters. Overall, the first quarter is the traditional low season for wind power, and the company's structural bubble sales volume is basically the same as last year. Sales volume in 2013 increased by more than 20% year on year. In an environment where the wind power industry is recovering, the sales volume of the 14-year structured bubble is expected to exceed expectations. Regarding prices, the first quarter remained stable. We judge that in the context of no new production capacity in the world, the recovery of wind power is transmitted through the industrial chain to the raw materials end. At that time, it is expected that a structural bubble will rise in prices. The timing may be after the second quarter. We estimate that prices will increase 15%, which will increase net profit by 30 to 40 million yuan. Entering the rail traffic field, opening up a new blue ocean, more than 80% of the world's structural bubbles are used for wind power, while domestic ones have reached 90%, making the structural bubbles too cyclical. The significance of the company's acquisition of Xinguang Environmental Protection: 1) A new source of rapidly growing profit, performance promise: Achieving net profit of no less than 26 million, 36 million, and 58 million yuan in 14-16. 2) More importantly, in the context of the restarting of the high-speed rail, the rail transit sector entered through this means is not only comparable in volume to wind power, but also finds new application fields for Tiansheng's many reserves of new materials, opening the path of high growth. Risk suggests another decline in wind power, worsening competition, catalysts announce new order structure, and smooth price increases

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