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【东吴证券】先锋新材新股研究:建筑节能新秀,阳光面料龙头

東吳證券 ·  Dec 30, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leader in the Sunshine Fabric industry. The company is the industry leader in building shading materials - sunshine fabrics in China. The company's product quality and technology are at the leading level in China, and its products are comparable to those of major foreign manufacturers. Currently, the company's three new products independently developed are in a leading position in the world. The small molecule industry for sunshade materials is in the introduction stage in China. Polymer composite shading materials (sun fabrics) have gradually become the main shading materials for doors, windows and curtain walls abroad due to their advantages such as light weight, environmental protection, beauty, good insulation effect, and long service life. Currently, demand is growing steadily overseas. The company's comprehensive advantages in cost and technology are obvious. The company has shown obvious cost advantages to the outside world, strong product competitiveness, certain technical advantages internally, and a high product entry threshold. The main quality indicators of the company's products have reached the quality index data of similar products of major international manufacturers, and the three new products developed independently occupy leading positions in the world. Compared with the product prices of internationally renowned manufacturers, the lowest product price is about half of the price of similar products, and the product price has a strong competitive advantage in the market. The fund-raising project addresses the company's current production capacity bottlenecks. Currently, the combined production capacity of the company's polymer composite shading materials is 6.5 million square meters, and the parent company's production capacity utilization rates in 2007, 2008, and 2009 were 112.79%, 109.27%, and 102.17%, respectively, all exceeding 100%. The parent company's production capacity is already sufficient, and the production capacity still cannot meet the requirements of the order. The fund-raising project plans to invest 186 million yuan in the subsidiary San Tego to increase the production capacity of 6 million square meters of sunshine fabric. After reaching the total production capacity, the company will form an annual production capacity of 12.5 million square meters. Profit forecast. According to the company's fund-raising plan and production capacity investment situation, we make a comprehensive estimate of the company's revenue and costs by business. We expect the company's revenue growth rates in 2010-2012 to be 42.54%, 89.27%, and 60.52%, respectively, and the net profit growth rate attributable to owners of the parent company is 52.6%, 98.2%, and 43.5%. The expected compound growth rate of net profit for three years is about 63.1%. Based on the total share capital of 79 million shares after issuance, the company's 10-12 EPS is expected to be 0.37, 0.74, and 1.06 yuan respectively. Recommended inquiry range: 1. FCFF valuation method: 21.49 yuan/share; 2. EVA valuation method: 28.03 yuan/share; 3. PE valuation method: 20.72-25.9 yuan/share. Since absolute valuation contains many assumptions and is highly subjective, we tend to use the absolute valuation price as a reference value, use the relative market valuation for pricing the company, and determine the final price range between 20.72 yuan and 25.9 yuan.

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