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【中信证券】鸿特精密新股定价报告:汽车铝合金精密压铸件后起之秀

中信證券 ·  Feb 15, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company mainly produces aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts and assemblies for automobile engines, transmissions and chassis manufacturing. The company's main customers include Ford, Dongben Engine, Dongben Motor, Changan Ford Mazda, Cummins, Fiat, GAC Fiat, Guangzhou Automobile Group and other large domestic and foreign vehicle (complete machine) manufacturers. The product line covers four major series in the US, Japan, Germany, and Italy, and is one of the fastest growing suppliers of automotive precision die casting parts and assemblies in China. Automobile consumption in China has entered a period of popularization, and the continued rapid development of automobile demand over the next 315 years will provide a strong guarantee for the growth of the company's performance. Demand for automobiles remained strong in 2010, with annual sales volume reaching 18.06 million units, a record high worldwide. Benefiting from the gradual start and rapid increase in automobile demand in second- and third-tier cities, China's automobile sales volume has maintained rapid growth. Demand for automobiles is expected to increase by 10% coincidently% in 2011, and automobile demand will continue to grow relatively rapidly over the next 315 years, providing a strong guarantee for the company's continued growth in performance. Under the trend of lightweight automobiles, the increase in the application ratio of aluminum in automobiles will provide a good opportunity for the company to develop. Energy saving and emission reduction have driven the development of lightweight automobiles. The scope of application of lightweight materials such as aluminum alloy in automobiles has gradually expanded, and the application ratio has gradually increased. The amount of aluminum used in American motorcycles has increased from about 60 kg in 1981 to about 150 kg now, and it will continue to increase gradually in the future. The amount of aluminum used in bicycles in China in 2009 was only about 100 kg, which is lower than the global average of about 113 kg. There is plenty of room for development, providing good historical opportunities for the company's development. The fund-raising project will ease the pressure on production capacity, reduce the purchase of rough parts, and help raise the company's gross margin level. The company currently has a production capacity of about 6,000 tons/year, and the equipment utilization rate has reached more than 91%, so production is basically at full capacity. It is expected that the fund-raising project will add 6,000 tons/year of production capacity after delivery. In 2011 and 2012, it is expected that they will contribute 30% and 75% of the new production capacity respectively, effectively relieving the pressure on the company's production capacity and at the same time reducing the purchase of rough parts, which will help raise the company's gross margin level. Risk factors: The obvious decline in downstream automobile demand affects the company's product sales; large fluctuations in the prices of major raw materials such as aluminum ingots erode the company's profits; the continued appreciation of the RMB increases the company's financial expenses, etc. Profit forecast, valuation, and investment rating: Taking into account the growth in demand in the automotive industry, the gradual commencement of the company's fund-raising projects, and the company's overall competitive advantage, the company's EPS for 2010/11/12 is expected to be 0.45/0.65/0.90 yuan, respectively, and the issue price is 16.28 yuan, corresponding to PE36/25/18 times. Combined with the average valuation levels of comparable companies, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation level is 251,28 times that of 2011, and the corresponding price range is 16.25 yuan to 18.20 yuan.

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