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【国泰君安】先锋新材:阳光面料行业的急先锋

國泰君安 ·  Dec 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Profit model: The company is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of polymer composite shading materials (sun fabrics) products. The product is used for building shading, has a double-effect energy saving effect, and can greatly reduce electricity consumption for air conditioning and lighting. Operating income continued to rise, with an increase of 68.13% in 2008 compared to 2007, and an increase of 32.42% in 2009 (107 million yuan) compared to 2008. The compound growth rate reached 49.21%. The gross profit level is around 40%, and exports account for 76%. Competitive advantage: The company has independent core technology and patents, and has independently developed many new polymer composite shading materials, breaking the monopoly position of foreign companies in this field. The products replace imports and export in large quantities, and have developed 3 world-leading new polymer composite shading materials. Polymer composite shading materials (sunshine fabrics) have the characteristics of large-scale investment in fixed assets. The commissioning and trial operation of the equipment takes a long time, and takes several months. As of 2009, the company has invested 150 million yuan in equipment, which has a first-mover advantage. Driving factors: The energy saving effect is remarkable. The use of shading in Europe can save about 25% of the energy used for air conditioning and 10% for heating. China's intelligent building market will reach 86.1 billion yuan by 2012, of which shading materials will inevitably be used. Currently, China has many policies to support energy efficiency in buildings, and China is in the implementation period, and the prospects are good. As the world promotes energy saving and emission reduction efforts and developing countries gradually pay attention to energy saving and emission reduction, the demand for polymer composite shading materials (sun fabrics) in developing countries will grow rapidly. The products produced by the company are cost-effective and have similar quality to similar products from internationally renowned manufacturers, but the price is only 30% to 50% of them, which has advantages in technology and price. Profit forecast: According to industry and company analysis, it is predicted that the net profit achieved by the company from 2010 to 2012 is 28 million yuan, 58 million yuan, and 91 million yuan. The corresponding earnings per share are 0.35 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 1.16 yuan, respectively, and the net profit growth rates for 10-12 years are 44%, 112%, and 56%. Valuation: The average price-earnings ratio of composite new materials companies in 2010 was 62 times, and the price-earnings ratio corresponding to '11 was 39 times. The company's reasonable prices were estimated using PE in '10 and '11, respectively. We think the company's reasonable 10-year PE is 62 to 70 times, and the corresponding stock price is 21.70 to 24.42 yuan. The first-day increase was 20%, the first-day price was 26-29 yuan, and the corresponding 10-year PE was 74-83 times.

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