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【东海证券】向日葵:迈入产业链垂直一体化行列,给予“买入”评级

東海證券 ·  Mar 1, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Join the ranks of vertical integration of the industrial chain. This shareholding will enable the company to further improve its industrial chain layout and enter the ranks of companies with vertical integration of the industrial chain. In fact, the company has been actively expanding both upstream and downstream. After going public in August last year, it used overraised capital to acquire shares in Zhejiang Youchuang, and implemented a project with an annual output of 160 million 8-inch solar silicon wafers in Zhejiang Youchuang through capital increases. Downstream, the company participated in a 10MW photovoltaic power plant demonstration project in Zhejiang Province. We believe that in the face of fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry, it is a wise move for the company to enter the upstream by participating in shares, which is conducive to improving product quality at the source and strengthening overall resilience to risks. The supply of polysilicon is guaranteed. Hejing Technology is currently improving Siemens' polycrystalline silicon production capacity to 1,800 tons, and the actual sales volume for the full year of last year was about 1,000 tons. Priority will be given to the supply of sunflowers after the shareholding, which coincides with the company's silicon wafer project. Furthermore, Hejing Technology's future plans are to increase the current production capacity to 18,000 tons. The company belongs to the Jiaozuo Coal Company of Henan Coal Chemical Group. It has strong financial advantages, abundant electricity resources, and hydrogen and chlorine resource advantages. In addition to polysilicon, it also produces 5,000 tons of gas-phase silica black per year. Sales volume will maintain a high growth rate, and there is a need for further expansion of production. The company sold about 200MW of batteries and modules in 2010, and is expected to sell 380MW in 2011. The first phase of the silicon wafer project is expected to reach production by August, and it is estimated that about 53% of batteries will use self-produced silicon wafers throughout 2011. The second phase of the silicon wafer project will reach production by the end of 2012, with a silicon wafer production capacity of 640 MW. The company needs to further expand production of cells and modules. We believe that participating in polysilicon is only the starting point for the company to enter the integration of the industrial chain. Due to differences in production capacity between polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components, the company will further integrate the industrial chain in the future, and the overall gross margin and competitiveness will be further enhanced. Investment suggestions: The company's earnings per share are expected to be 0.98 yuan and 1.56 yuan for 2012, respectively. Considering the company's revenue growth and the progress of industrial chain integration, the target price is 39.2 yuan, 40 times PE for 11 years.

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