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【华创证券】福星晓程:结算电价上调,商业模式形成

華創證券 ·  Sep 4, 2014 00:00  · Researches

On September 3, the company announced: The Ghana Electric Power Company made an internal review and agreed to raise the settled electricity prices in the eastern and western Ghanaian capital Accra from 12 cents per kilowatt hour to between 14 and 14.4 cents per kilowatt hour, as agreed in the “Ghana Accra Region to Reduce Line Losses and Related Power Grid Renovation Projects”. The accounting period began to be implemented on January 1, 2014. Key points 1. Electricity prices were raised by 16.7% to 20%, directly increasing net profit. The loss reduction project carried out by the company's subsidiary Ghana CB (65%) is to settle profits by sharing loss reduction electricity prices. The company is split with the National Power Company of Ghana on an 8:2 ratio. The interim report shows that the company's damage reduction project in the first half of the year has completed the installation of 120,000 meters in more than 150 stations. Assuming that 170,000 meters were installed in 2014 and 150,000 meters that were fully used, electricity would increase performance by 18 to 21.6 million yuan, directly increasing losses and reducing net profit by 20%. 2. Raising electricity prices is even more significant. The business model of the company building a cash flow platform is different from other meter companies. Instead, it focuses on profitable projects and supports the company's R&D and expansion by building a cash flow platform. This increase in electricity prices shows that the project in Ghana is progressing smoothly and has been approved by the ECG. Currently, the company is only carrying out damage reduction projects for 450,000 households in the east and west of Accra, the capital of Ghana. 70% of Ghana's industry is concentrated in Accra. ECG is responsible for managing and operating the electricity supply in Ghana's 6 major administrative regions (10 administrative regions in the country), with more than 2 million users, accounting for about 90% of Ghana's electricity supply. Currently, the company's focus has gradually shifted overseas. After completing the project in Accra, the capital of Ghana, the company is expected to replicate its business model by relying on accumulated product brands and operating reputation. 3. Supplementing liquidity reflects the company's performance entering a release period. As of June 30, the capital raised by the company's listing was 801 million yuan, and a total of 772 million yuan had been used, leaving only 31 million yuan, which was basically used up. On August 1, the company announced that its boss would fully subscribe for 10 million shares for 25.82 yuan to supplement the operating capital of overseas projects. At the same time, the financial status disclosed in the interim report also confirms that the company's performance has entered the release period. 4. I am optimistic about the performance of the 15th and 16th years, and I strongly recommend it! Considering the calculation of 120 million shares after issuing 10 million additional shares, we forecast an EPS of 0.71, 2.00, and 2.67 yuan for 14-16, corresponding to PE 65, 23, and 17 times. The three-year compound growth rate is 70%. Based on a 50-fold valuation in 15 years, a reasonable stock price of 100 yuan, 100% room, strong promotion! Risks indicate that overseas business progress is lower than expected; rapid business expansion brings talent gaps; and exchange rate fluctuations risk.

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