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【平安证券】向日葵:纵向一体化将增强竞争力

平安證券 ·  Dec 21, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The industry is still optimistic next year. It is expected to grow by about 30% through exchanges with the company. Judging from the current situation of industry exhibitions and orders, as well as exchanges between the company and various other organizations, the development of the photovoltaic industry is still promising next year. Currently, growth is generally expected to be around 30%. High-efficiency batteries and vertical integration will guarantee a higher gross margin for the application and development of the photovoltaic industry, as well as the impact of the short-term decline in European PV feed-in tariff subsidies. Continued decline in the price of photovoltaic products is a general trend. Prices of photovoltaic products are expected to drop by 10-15% next year. Currently, the company's monocrystalline battery efficiency can reach 18%, yield can reach 80% or more, and is investing to build an annual production capacity of 160 million polycrystalline silicon wafers. The first phase of the project can be put into operation by August next year, and it is expected that it will be able to supply 100 MW of silicon wafer production by itself next year. These measures will enable the company to effectively reduce the negative impact of future sharp declines in gross margin due to falling prices. The company's gross margin on component sales is expected to be 20.6% in 2010 and fall to 19.1% in 2011. The construction of the fund-raising project is faster than expected, and production capacity is expanding rapidly. Currently, the equipment required for the 100MW battery project raised by the company has basically arrived, and it is expected that it can be put into use in the first quarter of next year. Furthermore, after technical improvements, the original production line will be upgraded from producing 125*125 cells to 156*156 cells, which will increase production capacity by 50 to 60%. As a result, the production capacity of cells and modules is expected to reach around 400MW in 2011. Currently, the company has more than 300 MW of orders in hand, which can basically cover the scale of next year's production capacity. The risks of future company development mainly stem from lower than expected industry growth, order defaults, and sharp price declines. From 2010 to 2012, EPS is estimated to be 0.41, 0.88, and 1.18 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 62.9, 28.9, and 21.7 times, respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating for the first time.

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