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【天相投资】向日葵:重点布局上游

天相投資 ·  Apr 2, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 2,329 million yuan, an increase of 129.02% over the previous year; realized operating profit of 279 million yuan, an increase of 158.21% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 251 million yuan, an increase of 165.55% over the previous year; and realized diluted earnings per share of 0.49 yuan. The distribution plan for 2010 is 4 yuan for every 10 shares. The performance of photovoltaics increased dramatically with the “rush wave” of photovoltaics. Affected by the reduction in feed-in tariffs in Germany, installers rushed to install before the subsidy was lowered. The entire photovoltaic industry was booming in 2010, driven by Germany. During the reporting period, a surge in downstream demand caused the company's products to be in short supply, exports increased 259% year over year, and revenue and profit both increased sharply year over year. Germany's subsidy cuts have settled, and the growth rate will be leveling off. Its nuclear power exit plan leaves new room for imagination in the photovoltaic market, while the launch of emerging markets, mainly in Italy, is still worth looking forward to. Production capacity was put into operation smoothly. In 2010, the company's production capacity increased from 175 MW to 210 MW, and the 100 MW fund-raising projects will be fully put into operation in 2011/5. At that time, the company's production capacity will reach 275 MW. Compared to other battery module manufacturers that went public during the same period, the company's plans to expand production are relatively conservative. Focus on the upstream layout. The company used overfunded capital to launch a polycrystalline silicon wafer production project. The industry chain design ingots and slices, including the production of 3,900 tons of polysilicon ingots, then processing them into 160 million 8-inch polycrystalline silicon wafers. The planned production capacity has already exceeded the company's fund-raising projects to reach the production capacity of cells and modules after delivery, so it is not ruled out that the company's battery and module production capacity will expand further. At the same time, the company plans to participate in a polysilicon enterprise, Jiaozuo Coal Industry (Group) Hejing Technology Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio between 15-25%. The company currently has a polycrystalline silicon production capacity of 1,800 tons and a planned production capacity of 18,000 tons. Exchange rate effects are beginning to subside. The company's products are mainly exported to Europe, and the appreciation of the RMB during the reporting period had a negative impact on the company. The company's financial expenses reached 145 million yuan, increasing the period fee ratio by 3.9 percentage points to 11.2% year on year; the company's net investment income was -22.99 million yuan, mainly due to confirmed losses in forward foreign exchange contracts. The company's net investment income changed from negative to positive in the fourth quarter, and the negative effects began to subside. Profit forecast and rating: The company's 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.77 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.34 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 25.52 yuan on April 1, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 33 times, 25 times, and 19 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's upstream development strategy and raised the company's investment rating to “increase holdings.” Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of policy adjustments in support of photovoltaic demand countries.

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