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【国联证券】向日葵:业绩符合预期,产业链向上游延伸

國聯證券 ·  Feb 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company's 2010 annual results report shows that annual revenue can reach 2.33 billion yuan, up 129% year on year, operating profit of 290 million yuan, up 150% year on year; net profit of 260 million yuan, up 152.12% year on year; and earnings per share of 0.51 yuan, which is in line with our expectations. Comment: Full year results are in line with expectations. When demand in the photovoltaic market exploded in 2010, due to the rapid increase in process technology and production scale, the company's output and revenue increased dramatically. In the face of uncertain markets in European countries in 2011, our initial sales forecast for the fourth quarter of '10 was conservative, but actual evidence shows that sales for the fourth quarter continued to be full, better than expected, and full-year results were in line with expectations. Forward exchange rates were actively locked in, and exchange losses fell short of expectations. In the first half of 2010, due to the unilateral decline in the euro exchange rate, the company's financial expenses increased dramatically, but the company adopted an active forward exchange rate locking policy. Coupled with the fact that the exchange rate remained basically stable in the fourth quarter, the company's financial expenses for the whole year were lower than expected. The project to expand production of silicon wafers, cells and modules is progressing smoothly. The company's business expanded rapidly. After the first phase of the “200MW crystalline silicon cells and modules” project reached 100MW in June 2009, capital was raised to invest in the second phase of the 100MW project. Production is expected to be achieved in the second quarter of '11. The actual production capacity of the project may exceed expectations, maintaining the production capacity forecast of 275 MW of cells and modules in '11. Half of the silicon wafer cutting business with an annual output of 160 million wafers raised will reach production in the second half of '11. In view of upstream and downstream matching considerations, there is still a possibility that downstream battery and module production capacity will expand. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. Maintaining the 10-12 year earnings forecast of 0.50, 0.89, and 1.15 yuan per share, the company's closing price was 24 yuan on February 25, corresponding to an 11-year price-earnings ratio of 27 times. Given that the current average valuation level of the photovoltaic industry is around 30 times, the company was given a “recommended” investment rating.

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