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【安信证券】双龙股份:业绩符合预期,绿色轮胎规范将出台

安信證券 ·  Jan 20, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Performance is in line with expectations: the company achieved operating income of 164 million yuan, an increase of 3.07% over the same period last year, net profit attributable to the parent company of 27.16 million yuan, a decrease of 9.77% from the same period last year, and earnings per share of 0.20 yuan, in line with our expectations. The company's white carbon black sales volume was 29,800 tons, up 17.6% year on year. However, due to intense market competition and the fact that the products of the Jiangxi Wanzai subsidiary are in the low-end range, the gross profit margin was reduced by 38.11%, down 2.23 percentage points. The Jiangxi subsidiary began contributing to performance: the Jiangxi Wanzai 30,000 ton white carbon black project, an overfunded project, was put into operation in 2012, and achieved revenue of 36.55 million yuan and net profit of 2.33 million yuan in 2013. At present, the operating rate is still low. The white carbon black produced by Wanzai in Jiangxi is mainly in the low-end series, and the gross margin is significantly lower than that of the Jilin plant. However, it has the advantage of being close to customers and raw materials, and profits are expected to continue to improve in the future as operating rates increase. Green tire regulations will be introduced, and the company's downstream customers have decided: the “Green Tire Technical Specification” organized by the China Rubber Industry Association has completed a draft for comments, and is expected to be officially released in the first quarter of 2014. China will implement a green tire labeling (non-mandatory tire grading) system, and a wave of industrialization of green tires is taking shape. The company participated in the capital increase and stock expansion of Sichuan Rubber in 2013. Sichuan Rubber is currently constructing a technical improvement project with an annual output of 7 million high-performance, green and environmentally friendly passenger semi-steel radial tires. Sichuan Rubber has promised that more than 80% of the production materials (white carbon black) used will be supplied by the company. At the same time, the annual report revealed that the development of white carbon black for green tires has been completed, and downstream customers are in the trial stage, so they are optimistic about the company's prospects in this field. Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue growth rates from 2014 to 2016 to be 23.6%, 27.3%, and 42.3%, respectively, and earnings per share of 0.27, 0.37 and 0.55 yuan respectively; benefiting from the global green tire promotion trend, maintaining an investment rating of increasing holdings -A, with a target price of 8.0 yuan for 6 months, equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 30 times that of 2014. Risk warning: raw material prices are rising, market development is lower than expected

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