share_log

【宏源证券】宝利沥青:未来形成沥青和油气的双主业模式

宏源證券 ·  Nov 11, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Entering the natural gas industry, regional monopoly has made profitability strong and stable. According to our understanding, Huatong Renewable Energy is a private natural gas company and is a small city gas operator. Natural gas companies are divided into three levels. First-level wholesalers are CNPC and Sinopec, etc., second-level wholesalers are provincial gas operating companies, and Huatong is a third-level wholesaler responsible for the construction of pipelines and gas stations and gas supply for urban residents and industrial users. The regional monopoly on natural gas has made its profitability strong and stable, and the net profit for each project is estimated to be at least 30 million yuan or more. Huatong New Energy has projects in eight provinces and cities across the country, but its financial strength is poor, so it is seeking cooperation with the company. The Xinjiang refining and chemical project marks that the company is close to upstream energy, filling the asphalt supply gap in and around Xinjiang. The Xinjiang Baoli Petrochemical Project Company has 80% equity and plans to refine 2 million tons of heavy crude oil. According to our estimates, it is expected to produce 1 million tons of heavy duty petroleum asphalt and 700,000 to 800,000 tons of fuel oil; according to local asphalt prices of 5,000 yuan/ton and fuel oil prices of 4,500 yuan/ton, we estimate revenue of 8.3 billion yuan and conservatively estimate net profit of 500 million yuan, but the exact amount of heavy crude oil depends on the outcome of negotiations with CNPC. The progress of the project currently needs to be approved by the autonomous region. It is expected that approval will be obtained by the end of the 13th, and then reported to the Development and Reform Commission. The total planned investment of the project is 1.7 billion yuan, and the fixed asset investment is estimated at 1 billion yuan. Transportation directly passes through the Southern Xinjiang Railway, so capacity is not an issue. Karamay has an asphalt production capacity of 700,000 tons, and the demand in Xinjiang province exceeds 1 million tons. In addition, the surrounding provinces such as Tibet, Gansu, and Qinghai have demand of more than 2 million tons of asphalt, the company's project is just making up for the remaining 1 million tons of asphalt supply gap. In the future, the company will form a dual main business model of asphalt and oil and gas. Among them, the oil and gas business is expected to bring about explosive growth in the company's performance in 15 years, covering the first time, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. We believe that in the future, the company will form a dual main business model of asphalt and oil and gas, and that testing natural gas will open up room for growth for the company. We expect the company's EPS for 13-15 to be 0.20, 0.28, and 0.69 yuan respectively, and that the company's 14-15 performance will enter a rapid growth channel, so investors are advised to pay attention to dips.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment