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【国联证券】向日葵:量高费少是业绩超预期的主要因素

國聯證券 ·  Jan 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company's 2010 annual results forecast revision announcement shows that the annual revenue could reach 23-2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 126-131% over the same period, up 126-131% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 2-250 million yuan. Net profit reached 250-270 million yuan, and EPS was 0.49-0.53 yuan, up 142-161% and 96-112% respectively over the same period. Comment: Fourth quarter sales exceeded expectations. In the face of uncertain markets in European countries, the company's initial sales forecast for the fourth quarter of '10 was conservative, but actual evidence shows that sales for the fourth quarter continued to be full, better than expected. The euro was strong, and exchange losses fell short of expectations. In the first half of 2010, due to the unilateral decline in the euro exchange rate, the company's financial expenses increased dramatically. The exchange balance between the euro and the renminbi was basically balanced in the fourth quarter, and exchange losses were lower than the company's expectations, so financial expenses for the whole year were lower than expected. The project to expand production of silicon wafers, cells and modules is progressing smoothly. The company's business expanded rapidly. After the first phase of the “200MW crystalline silicon cells and modules” project reached 100MW in June 2009, capital was raised to invest in the second phase of the 100MW project. Production is expected to be achieved in the second quarter of '11. The production capacity of the newly built production line is estimated to increase by 20% compared to the theoretical value, and the production capacity forecast of 275 MW of cells and modules was maintained. Half of the silicon wafer cutting business with an annual output of 160 million wafers raised will reach production in the second half of '11. In view of upstream and downstream matching considerations, there is still a possibility that downstream battery and module production capacity will expand. The reasonable valuation range is 31.15-33.82 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating. Maintain the company's earnings forecast of 0.50, 0.89, and 1.15 yuan per share for 10-12 years. Given the possibility of the company's capacity expansion in 11 years, we gave the company a price-earnings ratio of 35-38 times for 11 years, a reasonable price of 31.15-33.82 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.

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