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【安信证券】双龙股份2012年一季报点评:业绩将逐步兑现

安信證券 ·  Apr 25, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: First-quarter performance growth was in line with expectations: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 30.87 million yuan, an increase of 15.77% over the same period last year; operating profit of 9.278,900 yuan, an increase of 44.65% over the same period last year; total profit of 9.278,900 yuan, an increase of 44.65% over the same period last year; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.9295 million yuan, equivalent to 0.06 yuan EPS, an increase of 45.43% over the same period last year. The performance is basically in line with our expectations, and the increase in sales revenue is slightly lower than our expectations. The main reason is that the original 20,000 ton production line of the company's Tonghua headquarters stopped work and maintenance for a period of time, and the 20,000 ton fund-raising project started well. Moreover, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin rebounded in the first quarter of this year, reflecting the company's good cost management capabilities and appropriate marketing methods. The industrialization of green tires is expected to accelerate: At present, China's tire industry has reached a consensus on promoting the development of green tire industrialization. The China Rubber Industry Association will refer to the EU tire labeling law and REACH regulations, and formulate green tire industrialization regulations that meet national conditions in line with China's energy saving and consumption reduction requirements. This means that China's green tire industrialization strategy is officially launched, which will point out a clear direction for industrial adjustment and technological upgrading in the tire industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has held a round table meeting with relevant parties in the European Union on the green tire issue, and agreed in principle to establish a soft issue on green tires. The development of self-regulatory standards for green tire products, led by the China Rubber Association, has also begun. After the self-regulatory standards are introduced, further applications for industry standards and national standards will be made. Aim to achieve by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan that half of the enterprises can produce green tires, and 50% of these enterprises will produce green tires that exceed the production of ordinary radial tires. Soluble polybutadiene rubber (SSBR), highly dispersible white carbon black, and silane coupling agents are the three key raw materials for manufacturing green tires. The industrialization of green tires will have a strong driving effect on market demand for dissolved polystyrene butadiene rubber, high dispersion white carbon black, and silane coupling agents. On average, to make a green tire, it takes 3 kg of dissolved polystyrene butadiene rubber, 2 kg of highly dispersible white carbon black, and 0.2 kg of silane coupling agent. However, at present, the vague definition of green tires, lack of standards, and insufficient testing methods have become major obstacles to the industrialization of green tires in China. Maintaining the buy-A investment rating: The company's 20,000-ton high-dispersion white carbon black project is basically fully produced, and the 30,000 ton silica black project in Jiangxi will also begin production at full capacity around June. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS in 2012, 2013, and 2014 to be 0.52 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.9 yuan respectively. According to the 2012 25 times PE valuation, the target price of 13 yuan for 6 months, maintaining the buy-A investment rating. Risk warning: the risk that the introduction of green tire industrialization regulations falls short of expectations, and the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices

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