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【广发证券】建新股份:环保趋严,竞争格局变化,建新再起航

廣發證券 ·  Jun 2, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Core point of view: Environmental inspections are getting stricter, small production capacity is being withdrawn from the market, and the production of chemical products in the amino industry chain has been highly polluting. With the strengthening of environmental protection inspections, some small enterprises have now withdrawn or are in the process of withdrawing from the market. Industry leaders such as Jianxin Co., Ltd. are expected to benefit from two aspects: on the one hand, they will benefit from a further increase in market share; on the other hand, they may benefit from rising product prices driven by reduced supply. The fund-raising project was fully put into operation. Entering a new stage of growth, the company's fund-raising projects were put into operation one after another in 2012, and the overall production capacity has basically doubled. The production capacity bottlenecks that plagued the company prior to listing have been resolved. It is proposed to acquire Qingyun Hualong to further standardize the industry order and promote the steady growth of the company through mastering key technologies in the “interamino” industry chain, gradually increasing its market share by constructing the three major barriers of environmental protection, technology, and cost. Performance elasticity estimates assume that production cost data such as raw materials, labor, depreciation, etc. and production and sales data are relatively stable, the company's 2013 EPS is more sensitive to the prices of 2,5 acid and meta-hydroxyl. For details, see text. Profit forecast and investment recommendations We estimate that the company's EPS for 2013-2015 was 0.45 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The following factors are comprehensively considered: (1) the company's dominant position in the “interamino industry chain”; (2) environmental protection inspections are getting stricter and small production capacity is being eliminated; (3) downstream demand fields with high added value are continuously expanded; (4) fund-raising projects are put into operation to provide increased production capacity; (5) as industry concentration continues to increase, product prices in the amino industry chain are expected to rise. Based on this, the company is given a “buy” rating. Risk warning 1. Production pollution accidents; 2. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish; 3. Core product advantages disappear.

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