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【安信证券】万讯自控:经营模式有效,受益于自动化工业发展

安信證券 ·  Aug 9, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The industrial automation instrumentation industry continues to develop. We are optimistic about the growth brought to the company's product market by the increase in demand for automation equipment, and believe that the industrial automation instrumentation industry is in a stage of continuous development. As labor costs increase and equipment accuracy requirements increase, the market for the company's existing products (electric actuators, speed control meters, signal conditioning instruments, control valves) will continue to grow. Furthermore, the market space for the company's new products is also not small. The industry concentration is not high, and the company has a certain competitive advantage (especially in terms of business model). Currently, the concentration of the automatic instrumentation industry is not high. Compared with competitors, the company has certain competitive advantages, including a unique business model; strong technical and R&D capabilities; brand advantages; rich experience in international cooperation; low costs; and perfect sales channels. Among them, the business model is the main characteristic of the company: the company selects professional small and medium-sized enterprises as international partners, and the other party can use the company's mature sales network to enter the Chinese market and rely on the company's service team to provide technical services to end users; the company can quickly master the core technology of mature products, use the product's many years of engineering performance and reputation to obtain supply qualifications, and occupy the market. We believe that with this business model, the company's market share will be further increased slightly. The growth comes from product expansion and technological upgrading, and is currently still dependent on international cooperation. The company's growth mainly comes from: the increase in market share and the increase in the localization rate due to the technological upgrade of existing products; and the further increase and expansion of production of new products. However, this model also determines that companies will still rely on international cooperation to a certain extent in the next few years. The compound growth rate for the next three years is about 30%, and the recommended inquiry range is 14.3-16.6 yuan. The gross margin of the company's products is high and the profitability is strong. We expect the company's earnings per share to be 0.47 yuan, 0.63 yuan and 0.81 yuan respectively in the next three years, with a compound net profit growth rate of 30.5%. Considering that the company's product hierarchy is relatively good, the product can continue to expand. It is estimated that the 2010 dynamic price-earnings ratio applied to its valuation will be between 40-45 times; based on this calculation, its reasonable price after listing will be between 19.0-21.4 yuan; the recommended inquiry price range is 14.3-16.6 yuan, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio for 2010 is about 30-35 times.

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