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【广发证券】建新股份:基本面向好趋势延续,涨价预期仍然存在

廣發證券 ·  Oct 22, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The incident company published 3 quarterly reports. In the 1st to 3rd quarter, it achieved operating income of 295 million yuan, an increase of 14.6% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.45 million, an increase of 56.8% over the previous year; and achieved earnings of 0.17 yuan per share. In the third quarter in a single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 106 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year, an increase of 26.1% over the previous year; and realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.76 million, an increase of 253.2% over the previous year and an increase of 2973.7% over the previous year. In other words, the net profit for a single quarter in the third quarter increased 2.5 times year on year and 29.7 times over the same period last month. Comment (1) Four factors led to a significant increase in performance. Factor 1: Environmental protection has led to a contraction in industry supply. Factor 2: Fund-raising projects contribute to increased sales. Factor 3: Increased product prices. Factor 4: Decrease in environmental costs and increase in profitability. (2) Downstream acceptance of the rise in product prices of Jianxin Co., Ltd. continues to increase, and downstream demand is expected to grow restorative growth (3) scale advantages further enhance environmental advantages; India's competitors' environmental cost advantage gradually disappears (4) Investment logic that confirms the upward fundamental inflection point in third-quarter results (5) Product prices are still expected to rise, and the basic positive trend will continue. Profit forecast and investment recommendations We estimate that the company's EPS for 2013-2015 was 0.45 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The following factors are comprehensively considered: (1) the company's dominant position in the “inter-amino industry chain”; (2) environmental inspections are becoming stricter and smaller production capacity is being eliminated; (3) product prices in the inter-amino industry chain are expected to rise as industry concentration continues to increase; (4) capital investment projects are put into operation to provide an increase in production capacity; (5) demand areas with high added value downstream continue to expand. Based on this, the company was given a “buy” rating. Risk warning 1. Production pollution incidents; 2. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish; 3. Core product advantages disappear.

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