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【第一创业证券】金刚玻璃:一季度同比持平,期待“防火新政”

第一創業 ·  Apr 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Product advantages show that the company's profitability continued to maintain during the reporting period. The company withstood the cold current of national real estate macro-control and the downturn in the global solar industry. Despite a year-on-year decline in the performance of domestic glass and solar energy companies in the first quarter, the company maintained stable performance. The main business revenue reached 76.74 million yuan, an increase of 1.57% over the previous year; and achieved net profit of 9.45 million yuan, an increase of 5.96% over the previous year. The reason why the company's performance has remained at the same level as the same period last year is mainly due to the company's product structure. The company's leading product, cesium-potassium fireproof glass, has obvious technical advantages, and the product is highly differentiated. Currently, it is in a period of market share expansion. For this reason, it can withstand the deterioration of the overall market environment and continue to maintain a high level of profitability. During the reporting period, the gross margin of the company's products was 34.36%, a slight increase of 0.51% over the previous year. The company's security glass market continued to develop well in the first quarter, and its operating income and profit both showed an upward trend. However, market demand for photovoltaic products is still sluggish, and additional production capacity has not been effective. As a result, there has been no significant increase in the company's performance. The company's main products have broad market space in the future. The company's current fireproof glass and BIPV products are all key support products for the National 12th Five-Year Plan, and future application prospects are very broad. 1. Currently, the state is studying and formulating a new “building fire prevention” plan. The introduction of this plan will greatly promote the fireproof glass market. China currently produces more than 2 billion square meters of flat glass a year, 70% of which is used in houses. If fireproof glass is used in 1/10 of the glass used in house construction, 140 million square meters of fireproof glass will be needed every year. For this reason, the market space is huge. 2. Generally, the development path of buildings is: ordinary buildings → energy-saving buildings → production capacity buildings, and production capacity buildings are the final direction of building development. However, as a form of implementation of production capacity building, BIPV can be seen that its development prospects are very bright. Currently, it is still in its infancy. With the increase in policy support from various governments, the decline in battery prices, and the development of large-scale public buildings in the future, its market prospects are very broad. With the introduction of a new “building fire prevention” plan, the company's stock price is expected to be influenced by short-term catalytic initiation, as fire prevention awareness deepens, public demand for fire performance of buildings is increasing, and major domestic fire incidents, the Ministry of Public Security, together with relevant departments, is revising the national standard “Fire Prevention Code for High-rise Civil Buildings.” According to reports, up to now, the integrated revisions of the national standards “Fire Code for Building Design” and “Fire Code for High-rise Civil Building Design” have passed expert review in Tianjin. The range of buildings with mandatory use of fireproof glass will be greatly increased from the current level, more construction sites will be forced to use fireproof glass, and the fireproof glass market will usher in rapid growth. The introduction of the new policy may open up market space for the application of fireproof glass, thereby stimulating the company's stock price to rise. At the same time, the new regulations may also stipulate the application of fireproof door and window profiles to a certain extent, thus having a great impact on the door and window profile market and benefiting the company's steel and aluminum profiles. Profit forecasting and ratings have entered 12 years, and the company's fund-raising and production capacity will enter the release period. The company's orders are currently quite full, and in the next two years, with the introduction of additional production capacity, its performance will continue to grow at a high level. We made a profit forecast for the company based on the company's current production capacity, on-hand orders, and product price trend expectations. We expect the company to achieve EPS of 0.29 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.98 yuan in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, corresponding to the current price-earnings ratios of 25X, 11.19X, and 7.36X, respectively. Considering the company's high growth potential and broad development space, and at the same time, there are policy incentives in the short term, we believe that the company's valuation is undervalued, giving the company a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning 1. Affected by downstream demand, the company's new production capacity sales volume fell short of our expectations; 2. The content of the new fire prevention policy was not in line with our expectations.

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