Event: Digital Video released a performance report: Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2014 was 177.7974 million yuan to 191.4741 million yuan, an increase of 30-40% over the previous year. 1. The lower-than-expected performance growth rate is mainly due to the failure of the film and television business to enter the settlement cycle. The contribution of movies and TV dramas will accelerate in 2015. Co-filmed films such as “Jingcheng No. 81” and “Girlfriends” were screened in the third quarter. The box office data was ideal, but by the end of the year, it had not entered the settlement cycle. As a result, revenue from the film and television business as of the end of the year was confirmed to be lower than expected, which had a significant negative impact on net profit in 2014. The screening of “Hot Blooded Men Gang” and the self-made drama “Clinic Story” in the first quarter of 2015 on Tianjin TV and Sichuan TV will also continue to increase their contribution to film and television performance. 2. The development of OTT users will accelerate, and the performance contribution is expected to increase year by year. Since the second half of 2014, the company has cooperated with radio and television operators from all over the world to arrange joint operations for OTT users, and business in Inner Mongolia and other places has started well. We expect OTT users to reach 5 million by the end of 2015, revenue contribution is expected to reach 90 million yuan, and corresponding performance flexibility will increase markedly. 3. The two-way network reform will still stimulate the steady growth of traditional radio and television equipment business. Businesses such as ultra-optical networks and digital high-definition equipment are expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 20-30%, and the CA module business is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of about 10%. In the context of radio and television operators speeding up two-way network reform, the steady growth of traditional radio and television equipment business is a probable event. 4. The P2P business layout brings room for imagination in the field of Internet finance. Since the launch of the Toyofutsu P2P platform for digital video, the business expansion has been impressive. According to public information from First Finance, on January 23, 2015, Fengpay officially launched the Internet Finance Manager mobile product. A new service model characterized by “fund custodian+mobile internet+customized development” was born. The NetFinance Manager mobile platform launched by Fengpay can provide comprehensive customized development for P2P platform merchants to realize functions such as mobile account opening, one-click recharge, bidding, and bank card management. It will pay more attention to the convenient user experience and have a great competitive advantage. Moreover, in terms of risk control, the Fengpay Payment Fund Custody mobile platform will adopt two-way cross-certification standards to ensure the safety of capital transactions. 5. Military video command services based on high-definition video technology are also progressing steadily. Based on high-definition video technology in the traditional field of radio and television, and on the basis of fully considering the characteristics of military systems, digital video has achieved user expansion across industries. The military is able to adopt a digital video command and control system, which fully demonstrates its technical strength and brings new growth points to it. Combining the investment scale and market accessibility of the special industry, we expect that in 2015, digital video command system orders from the military and other special industries will reach about 50 million yuan, with a corresponding performance contribution of about 20 million yuan. 6. Profit forecasts and investment suggestions. Based on the company's existing orders and execution progress, we estimate that the main business revenue of digital video in 2014-2016 was 551.79 million yuan, 887.52 million yuan and 1344.33 million yuan respectively, with net profit of 19 million yuan, 318.16 million yuan and 392.36 million yuan respectively. The decline in performance was mainly due to OTT services similar to Internet services, subsidies to users or exceeding expectations. The corresponding earnings per share were $0.28, $0.47, and $0.57, respectively. Considering the characteristics of the company's business performance contribution being transformed from traditional radio and television equipment business to radio and television OTT user operations, financial P2P platforms, and military video systems, we expect the future valuation level to increase significantly, maintain the buying rating, and give the company a six-month target price of 18.80 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of about 40 times that of 2015. 7. Main uncertainties. The progress of OTT promotion is below expectations, terminal occupancy costs in OTT business development have risen sharply, somatosensory game release is lower than expected, the progress and results of video content integration are lower than expected, the profit level of P2P platforms is lower than expected, financial IC promotion and its market share is lower than expected, military business development is lower than expected, and economic systemic risks are at risk.
【海通证券】数码视讯:影视业务结算因素引致业绩低于预期,OTT运营、P2P及军工业务带来想象空间
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