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【华鑫证券】天龙光电:“一体化”和“多元化”进行式

華鑫證券 ·  Aug 10, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of 2010, the company achieved main business revenue of 418 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.73%; operating profit of 103 million yuan, an increase of 166.54%; net profit of 61.32 million yuan, an increase of 71.08%; and diluted earnings per share of 0.3066 yuan. Traditional business is growing steadily: The single crystal furnace business is the company's traditional business. According to statistics from relevant industry agencies, the company's domestic market share ranks first. In the first half of 2011, the monocrystalline furnace business revenue was 240 million yuan, an increase of 37.62% over the previous year, in line with our expectations. Furthermore, due to the commissioning of the growth furnace construction project in the first half of the year and the relative relaxation of upstream component supply, the gross margin of the monocrystalline furnace business rose to 40.5%, up 7.02% from the previous year. The new business began to gain strength: in the first half of the year, the company successively entered the graphite thermal field field and the crucible field through acquisitions, and basically completed the layout of the core components of the crystal growth furnace. In the first half of 2011, the hot market business and the crucible business contributed revenue of 92.17 million yuan and 4.37 million yuan respectively, with gross margins as high as 61.93% and 57.85%, respectively. Among them, the Crucible business was merged only in June. The annual net profit of the graphite hot field business will be far higher than the acquisition promise of a net profit of 30 million yuan in 2011. The polycrystalline furnace business and multi-wire cutting machines still require effort: the company and Tsinghua University jointly developed the successful DRAF450 polycrystalline furnace and launched it on the market in the second quarter of 2011. At present, the company's polycrystalline furnaces have achieved sales; we estimate that a total of about 10 units have been sold. Due to the decline in the downturn in photovoltaics, production capacity expansion has slowed down, which has affected the market development of the company's polycrystalline furnace products. Sales volume and orders are slightly lower than our expectations. However, since late June, there has been an overall recovery in the photovoltaic industry. We expect that from the third quarter, various manufacturers' plans to expand production will gradually be unfrozen, and the company's polycrystalline furnace business will make a breakthrough in the second half of the year. Furthermore, in 2011, Xinxiang CNC, a subsidiary of the company, launched a multi-wire cutting machine product, and achieved sales of 1 unit in the first half of the year. We believe this business will reach an inflection point in 2012. The LED business is progressing in an orderly manner: The company's LED business mainly includes sapphire furnaces and MOCVD equipment. In terms of sapphire furnaces, the company has successfully delivered 4 units manufactured by Kyocera and Sumitomo in Japan, while the domestic side has cooperated with Poly GCL. MOCVD business and Huasheng Optoelectronics (Hong Kong) set up a joint venture for product development, which is expected to start generating profits in 2012. It is predicted that the company's operating income for the year 11 and 12 will be 1,056 billion yuan and 1,779 million yuan, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.96 yuan and 1.68 yuan respectively; corresponding to the current market price PE will be 28.27 times and 16.15 times, respectively. It is lower than the valuation level of comparable companies (Jinggong Technology's PE in '11 was 35 times) and maintained its “recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: New orders are not as good as expected; downstream production expansion is slow; impact of PV policies.

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