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【申银万国证券】金亚科技深度研究:转型电视游戏蓝海,百亿市值不是梦

申萬宏源 ·  Mar 4, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Video games are the next blue ocean market for the game industry. 1) Looking at the global market, home console games have always been the game format that accounts for the largest share of volume; judging from historical performance, the cumulative sales volume of the Little Overlord learning machine in the 90s was 20 million units, which is basically the same as the sales volume of Nintendo FC red and white machines in Japan (19.35 million units) during the same period. Demand for home video game consoles in the Chinese market in the 90s was already second only to North America and on a par with Japan. Considering the payment for hardware and game content, the potential market size may reach 39 billion yuan or more, which is expected to become the next blue ocean market; 2) Considering the uniqueness of the Chinese market, console games represented by Xbox may occupy the high-end market. Smart TV/set-top boxes are expected to become the main carrier form of video games in the future, and online games will become the main monetization method. Jinya Technology is actively transforming its strategy into the video game industry. 1) The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of set-top box equipment, and the downstream is a cable TV operator; due to factors such as the industry development cycle, the company's revenue and performance growth rate has been relatively slow in recent years. In this context, the company has set a strategic goal of “de-broadcasting” and has launched a variety of OTT products; 2) Through cooperation with Perfect World, the company pioneered the OTT product format for videos+video games and intervened in the home video game market. The first product achieved a target volume of 330,000 units in 7 days; 3) The company established a “content+terminal” platform development strategy The direction, and the continuous improvement of the industrial chain layout through acquisitions, strategic cooperation, or the establishment of subsidiaries, is worth looking forward to in the future development potential of the video game business. For the first time, coverage gave an increase in holdings rating. 1) We believe that the relatively poor performance of the company in 2013 was mainly due to bad debt charges, impairment of goodwill, and losses in merger and acquisition projects. In the future, with the elimination of the above factors and the beginning of large-scale sales of video game set-top box products, we expect the company's EPS in 14/15/16 to be 0.17/0.24/0.28 yuan, respectively, and the company's current stock price corresponding to 109/78/64 times PE for the same period; 2) Although the current valuation is relatively high, considering the large market capacity of the video game industry and the high market capitalization ceiling of leading companies (conservative estimates that the market value of leading video game industry leaders is expected to reach more than 20 billion yuan), we will give the company an “increase in holdings” rating for the first time.

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