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【东海证券】天龙光电:多线布局的光伏设备提供商,给予“增持”评级

東海證券 ·  Sep 12, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Single crystal furnaces are at the forefront of the country, and import substitution has been completed. Tianlong's single crystal furnace is the company's largest business, with revenue growing from 196 million in 2007 to 426 million in 2010 to 240 million in mid-2011, accounting for about 60% of revenue. Tianlong's monocrystalline furnaces occupy a leading position in the domestic market, with a market share of about 23%. Other major competitors include Beijing Express, Shanghai Hanhong, and Beijing Jingyi Century. Currently, the ratio of monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers in the new production capacity is 3:7, and monocrystalline furnaces will maintain a stable situation in the future. The company's polysilicon ingot furnace is under development, and import substitution is underway. The company's 2011 interim report generated revenue of 2008 million for polycrystalline furnaces, and is currently still in the small-batch supply stage. Whether the company can break through mass supply to large customers is a key point in the company's recent growth. In 2010, the share of GTSolar, a foreign-funded domestic polycrystalline furnace manufacturer, gradually declined, while domestic companies such as Seiko Technology and Beijing Yuntong gradually increased their share of polysilicon furnaces, and the import substitution of domestic polysilicon furnaces will continue in the future. The pace of silicon wafer expansion has slowed down. The boom in the industry last year caused excessive expansion of silicon wafer production capacity, leading to current overcapacity, which may affect equipment shipments next year. At this stage, expectations for small and medium-sized silicon wafer manufacturers to expand are weakening. Only large manufacturers have the strength to continue expanding, but the scale of expansion may shrink, and it is also necessary to observe whether the intended orders within the industry can be delivered in a timely manner. Layout products such as graphite hot fields, sapphire furnaces, MOCVD furnaces, and wire cutters. The company entered the field of graphite thermal field consumables by acquiring 68% of Shanghai James's shares. James' net profit for the first half of 2011 reached 33.61 million. There were a small number of OEM orders from Kyocera and Sumitomo Electric from Japan last year for sapphire furnaces. MOCVD equipment is a joint venture with Huasheng Optoelectronics, and its team has first-class semiconductor thin film deposition equipment and MOCVD technology. MOCVD is the most invested upstream equipment in the LED industry, and the technical difficulty is high. The multi-wire cutting machine field is currently dominated by foreign investors, and there are no real domestic mass production companies. The company is an early domestic enterprise engaged in wire cutting machine research and development, and there is plenty of future market space. Profit forecasting and valuation. We forecast that in 2011, 2012, and 2013, the company's EPS would be 0.8 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.64 yuan, respectively, giving it 30 times PE in 2011, a target price of 24 yuan, and an increase in holdings rating. risk factors. The photovoltaic market fell far short of expectations, and market development of products such as polysilicon ingot furnaces and sapphire furnaces fell short of expectations.

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