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【中投证券】吉峰农机:工程机械、费用、少数股东损益拖累公司2012年业绩

中投證券 ·  Jan 23, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Company announcement 2012 performance forecast: In 2012, the company achieved a 5-15% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 90%-60% year-on-year decrease in attributable net profit, equivalent to 0.02-0.08 yuan in EPS. Investment highlights: The company's 2012 revenue was in line with our expectations. In 2012, the company's revenue increased by 5%-15% year on year, in line with our expectations (we expect the company's revenue to increase 10% year on year in 2012 to reach 5.639 billion yuan), and revenue continued to grow over 12 years. The reason is mainly due to the fact that the company's subsidiary stores in key agricultural machinery sales markets outside the province (such as Yunnan, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, etc.) have gradually matured, and agricultural machinery business sales have increased significantly year on year. In 2012, the net profit attributable to the company declined sharply year on year, which was lower than our expectations. Reason: ① The construction machinery business lost money in 2012. Due to the impact of the dual factors of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and cyclical adjustments in the industry, the company's construction machinery business sales volume declined sharply, while at the same time being burdened with higher labor management costs. ② There was a significant increase in expenses over the same period last year. On the one hand, the scale of the company's agricultural machinery subsidy funds increased, so the scale and cost of financing to banks and other financial institutions continued to increase compared to the previous year, and financial expenses for financing increased year on year; on the other hand, the increase in the number of employees and changes in structured marketing and management personnel caused the company's expenses for operating and management expenses such as remuneration, travel, office work, and training all increased significantly compared to the previous year. ③ The share of minority shareholders' equity has increased relatively. Sales performance in regions where major hierarchical holding subsidiaries are located outside the province has gradually increased. As a result of the hierarchical holding investment structure, the share of minority shareholders' equity in the company has also increased relatively, so the equity belonging to listed companies has been diluted to a certain extent. In Q4 2012, the company's cash flow situation is expected to continue to improve. In Q4 '12, the company increased its year-end cash flow through measures such as reducing the scale of cash buyout inventory and increasing the strength of rebate policies for lower-level agents and end users. The cash flow of Q4 companies is expected to continue the positive trend in Q2 and Q3. In '13, the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy is expected to change, that is, from the original “differential purchase” and “target system” to a “full purchase of machinery” and a “general preferential system”, which will have a profound impact on the agricultural machinery distribution industry. Profit forecast: The company's EPS for 12-14 was lowered to 0.06, 0.13, and 0.19 yuan. It is expected that the company will increase its efforts to reverse losses in the construction machinery business and cost control in 2013, and is expected to achieve high growth in its performance in 13 years. Maintaining the previous views: ① Influenced by changes in the macroeconomy and the company's strategy, 12 years will be a year of hard work for the company, and the company's performance is expected to achieve high growth; ② the trend of the company's future growth into the king of agricultural machinery distribution in China will not change; ③ the company is an excellent investment target with the theme of agricultural modernization and urbanization. Short-term company stock prices have risen significantly and valuations are expensive, so it is recommended to temporarily avoid it. Risk warning: agricultural machinery policy adjustment risks, business risks during expansion, capital bottlenecks

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