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【国金证券】张裕A:行业地位无人憾 竞争优势更优异

國金證券 ·  Aug 7, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  Changyu has developed rapidly in recent years. We think the reasons why the company has done a good job in recent years: first, it has rationalized the mechanism; second, it has excellent management and can complement each other's strengths; third, the company's brand has cultural accumulation; fourth, it has a good corporate culture; and fifth, it has established and perfected a three-level marketing network system. After a comparative study of several major domestic wine companies based on the three factors of brand, product, and sales, we believe that Changyu's competitive advantage is obvious. As investors are concerned that the massive entry of foreign wine will have a huge impact on China's wine companies, we believe that the impact of foreign wines on the country will be limited. The problem currently facing wine companies is how to take advantage of the great opportunity for foreign brands to enter China to expand and strengthen the Chinese wine industry. Comparative research was carried out with competitors in the same industry, and a comprehensive judgment was made based on the company's research situation. We believe that the company is currently enjoying the harvest period of continuous intensive cultivation in the previous few years. In addition, at present, the company has successfully restructured and has a good governance structure, making it difficult for competitors to surpass in the next few years. We forecast the company's earnings per share for 2007, 2008, and 2009 to be 1.128 yuan and 1.523 yuan 2.014, corresponding price-earnings ratios of 55.10, 40.82, and 30.87 times per share. Considering the company's excellent quality and continued steady growth in performance, we gave the company a buying rating.

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