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【申银万国证券】吉峰农机:具备业绩弹性的农机流通领头

申萬宏源 ·  Nov 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The “direct management+franchise” chain model expands market share and transforms market stock into incremental company performance: the company takes the development of an agricultural machinery retail terminal network as its core strategic direction, has more than 200 direct subsidiary chain stores, more than 2,400 agent dealers, and covers 21 provinces across the country, making it a leader in the agricultural machinery distribution sector in the country. Currently, the market share is less than 2%. It is in a “blue ocean,” and the market space is vast. By acquiring shares in Sun Company in cash by subsidiaries, existing minority shareholders' equity is converted into an increase in the company's future performance, and performance flexibility is high. The business model is innovative, with significant comprehensive advantages: 1. It is the first in the industry to apply the direct chain business model to the agricultural machinery distribution field, with franchise; 2. The transformation from a small store business model to a multi-category, multi-brand hypermarket business model; 3. From a single first-class communication model focusing on sales to a comprehensive service model integrating specialized consulting, pre-sales training, experiential marketing, and convenient after-sales service with the core of enhancing the total value of buyers; 4. Developing a balanced agricultural machinery, construction machinery, truck, and general mechanical and electrical business, and is committed to becoming a modern business agricultural equipment and After-sales and service provider for integrated electromechanical systems in the pan-rural area. Driven by innovative business models, the company's advantages in size, professional technical services, management, and brand are remarkable. Favorable policies for the industry are frequent, and their catalytic effect is remarkable: the Ministry of Commerce's “Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Modern Agricultural Machinery Circulation System” indicates that in 5 to 10 years, agricultural machinery outlets will reach more than 90% coverage in rural townships, strengthening the dominant position of large distribution enterprises. Policies such as the Generalized System of Preferences and full-price machine purchases have brought new changes to the industry. They have been piloted in 4 provinces this year, and will be extended to around 10 provinces next year. In terms of capital, subsidies and support for agriculture have been continuously increased, and the central agricultural machinery subsidy fund has increased to 21.5 billion yuan. Subsidies are likely to be further strengthened in the future. Furthermore, the first national agricultural industrialization work conference will also be held on November 26. Industry-specific new policies and changes have brought room for improvement in long-term profitability, as well as subsequent development opportunities. Cash flow pressure will reach an inflection point. It is expected that the company's performance will improve after the “hematopoietic” function is restored: the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy is preparing changes, and the “differential purchase” will shift to “full purchase”; cooperate with financial leasing companies to reduce upfront capital investment and expand new business models; and the GEM refinancing function may resume in '13. The pressure on the company's cash flow will reach an inflection point, and performance will be more flexible. We expect the company's EPS for 12-14 to be 0.15, 0.22, and 0.28 yuan, corresponding to 45, 30, and 24 times PE. There have been many favorable policies in the industry recently, and the timing for theme investments is appropriate. Give the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Investment risks mainly include failure to ease cash flow pressure, continued decline in the construction machinery sector, and high valuations.

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