Pharmaceutical enterprises with a relatively complete product line and superior varieties: the company's business is mainly general medicine, engaged in the research and development, production and sales of proprietary Chinese medicine and chemical preparations. The company's products include cough and expectorant, kidney tonifying and anti-infective drugs, including Zhikebao tablets, Jinkui Shenqi tablets, erythromycin enteric-coated tablets, erythromycin tablets, nystatin tablets and Akafen powder and other high-quality varieties.
Among them, Zhike Bao tablet and Jinkui Shenqi tablet have good market prospects and have certain competitive advantages, and are expected to contribute more than 50% of the company's net profit. Zhikebao tablets ranked eighth in the national antitussive and expectorant Chinese patent medicine market in 2012 according to the scale of terminal sales.
The positioning of R & D is accurate, and the market orientation is in line with reality: with the acceleration of China's population growth and aging process, the implementation of the new medical reform and the in-depth implementation of the national medical security system, the overall supply and demand situation of China's pharmaceutical industry will still maintain a good development trend. The company's R & D idea is focused on "general medicine"-drugs with market prospects, large consumption and relatively mature market. After listing, they can be packaged with the company's original products and quickly enter hospitals and drugstores through dealers. The company has an extensive industrial chain in the pharmaceutical industry, and plays an important role in the manufacturing of cough and expectorant, kidney-tonifying and anti-infective drugs.
Stable growth of dominant varieties, fund-raising projects to expand production capacity: cough treasure tablets: increase promotion efforts, potential market to maintain rapid growth, overall income steady growth; Golden Chamber Shenqi tablets: steady growth Anti-infective drugs: due to the bottleneck of production capacity, in order to give priority to the production of cough and phlegm-relieving and kidney-tonifying drugs of high gross profit varieties, some anti-infective drugs can be transferred to produce cough and phlegm-relieving and kidney-tonifying drugs, and the income is expected to decline in 14-15 years and increase rapidly after the release of production capacity in 16 years. The company plans to issue 25 million shares, raising funds mainly for production expansion, R & D technology centers, marketing network expansion and information system construction. Most of the products will be accelerated after the release of production capacity in 2016. and previously unlisted products due to capacity bottlenecks will be listed one after another.
Investment advice: based on the above assumptions, we expect revenue growth of 1.7%, 5.0% and 16.9% for 2014-16, and net profit growth of 12.4%, 8.4% and 10.3% respectively. The EPS is 0.91, 0.98 and 1.08 yuan, respectively. 15-20XPE in 2014, the proposed inquiry range is 13.65-18.20 yuan, and the first-day listing price range is 15.70-20.48 yuan. This is equivalent to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5-22.5 times in 2014.
Risk hint: the risk of further slowing down the growth rate of business performance due to the influence of insufficient production capacity, policy risk and so on.