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【国元(香港)】江铃B:年底销量再次冲高,今年进入收获期

國元(香港) ·  Jan 21, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Annual results exceeded expectations, and profit increased 20% year on year: Jiangling Motors released a performance report. The company recorded operating income of 25.54 billion yuan in 2014, an increase of 22.3% over the previous year; net profit for the period was 2.11 billion yuan, up 24.4% year on year; corresponding to earnings per share of 2.44 yuan, exceeding market and our expectations. Sales volume rose again at the end of the year, and many new models were added in 2015: the company sold a total of 275,858 vehicles throughout the year, an increase of 19.9% over the previous year. Among them, JMC brand light truck sales were 106,582 units, up 33.3% year on year; JMC brand pickup truck sales volume was 70,454 units, up 2.6% year on year; Yusheng brand SUV sales volume was 26,708 units, up 102% year on year; and Ford brand commercial vehicle sales were 72,076 units, up 6.3% year on year. The company's sales volume in December greatly exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year growth rates of light trucks and pickups reached 89.3% and 48.8%, respectively. In 2015, the company will launch three new models, Everest, Tourneo Custom, and Transit Connect, one after another, which is expected to drive a continued increase in sales volume. There has been a steady recovery in the fourth quarter, and this year has entered a harvest period: the company's investment in production capacity in recent years has come to an end, and the Xiaolan base has basically completed relocation work to produce products such as pickups, SUVs, and light buses. Although the three-fee increase was high last year, it is believed that as the company's new projects are gradually put into production and the product structure is adjusted, the share of expenses will gradually decline. Judging from the new products, Ford's 7-seater medium to large SUV Everest will be domestically produced in 2015, marking that the company has officially become another passenger car platform for Ford in China. Currently, there are few similar domestic SUV products, and the prices are high, so they cannot meet the growing demand of the SUV market very well. It is expected that the new products will bring new growth points to the company. Maintain the highly recommended rating and increase the target price to HK$44.0: We forecast that the company's EPS for 2015-2016 will be $3.21 and $4.02, respectively. Considering the company's shareholder background, stable past performance, and high dividend ratio, and the company's expected rapid growth in performance in the second half of this year, we gave the company a valuation of 11 times PE in 2015, which is equivalent to the target price of HK$44.0, which is 28% higher than the current price, and maintains a highly recommended rating.

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