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【方正证券】登云股份:汽车发动机气门行业的制造专家

方正證券 ·  Jan 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

A leading enterprise in the valve industry, the third company in market share. The main business of the company is the production and sale of automobile engine intake and exhaust valves. It is one of the leading enterprises in the domestic engine valve industry. The market share is third in the industry, with a total of more than 10,000 product models. Customers include Cummins, Dachai, Xichai, and Weichai, and nearly 20 famous domestic vehicle and engine manufacturers. The export products cover most European, American, and Japanese car models. The valve industry has broad development prospects, and the company has a lot of room for future growth. In 2013, China's automobile production and sales volume reached 2211.68 and 21.8841 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.53% and 14.34% respectively. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales volume will exceed 24 million vehicles in 2014, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 8.5%. The future development of China's automobile industry can still be expected, and valve demand is positively correlated with automobile production and sales volume. Based on this, we conservatively predict that the target market capacity of the company's products in 2014-2015 will be 651.65 million units and 668.86 million units. This market is 14 times the company's production capacity (45 million units) after the company's fund-raising and expansion. It can be seen that the company still has a lot of market space in the future. The company's competitive advantage is obvious, and continued growth can be expected in the future. The company has outstanding advantages in terms of technical level, product quality, and management model. The company has industry-leading process levels, and its products have obtained the ISO/TS16949 international automobile industry quality system and the strict certification of famous domestic and foreign OEMs such as Cummins and Dachai; participated in formulating national standards for the valve industry such as JB/T6012.2-2008 and GB/T23337-2009; the company has rich management experience, and the core management has worked in the company for close to or more than 20 years; the company has a unique flexible production model and advanced MMES production management system, which guarantees the advantages of the company's flexible production scheduling; the company's products since 2003 Getting involved in the field of military automobile engines has demonstrated the excellence of the company's products; in 2013, the company successfully developed supporting business for international construction machinery giants such as Caterpillar, and will develop rapidly in the high-end construction machinery product market in the future. Multiple advantages ensure the company's continued growth in the future. Profit forecasts and valuations assume 23 million new shares to be issued. We forecast earnings per share of $0.4, 0.5, and 0.57 yuan for 2013-2015 after dilution of the company's total share capital. Comparing the valuations of comparable companies, we think it is reasonable to give the company a price-earnings ratio of 17-19 times in 2014, corresponding to a reasonable value range between 8.5 and 9.5 yuan. Risk indicates risk in overseas markets; risk of trade friction; risk of rising costs of raw materials, etc.; risk of energy supply and transportation.

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