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【国元(香港)】江铃B:四季度起新车陆续投放,逐渐进入收获期

國元(香港) ·  May 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Revenue grew steadily in the first quarter, and net profit declined slightly: in the first quarter of 2015, the company achieved operating income of 6.35 billion yuan, up 2.6% year on year; gross margin was 24.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year on year; the main reason was the smooth decline in sales of high gross margin products; during the period, the company achieved net profit of 570 million yuan, down 4.1% year on year; achieved EPS of 0.67 yuan after full dilution. During the period, the company's management expenses ratio was 8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in R&D expenses. The sales expense ratio was 5.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year. Sales have been slightly weak since the beginning of the year, and light trucks are expected to remain strong: in January-April, the company sold a total of 9,3601 cars, an increase of 1.1% over the previous year. Among them, the sales volume of JMC brand light trucks was 40,817 units, up 30.5% year on year; sales volume of JMC brand pickup trucks was 21,864 units, down 18.3% year on year; sales of Yusheng brand SUVs were 8,289 units, down 18.9% year on year; and sales volume of Ford brand commercial vehicles was 22,630 units, down 6.9% year on year. Benefiting from the improved competitive landscape brought about by emissions upgrades, JMC brand light trucks will remain strong in 2015. New cars will be launched in the fourth quarter, and the harvest period is expected next year: Judging from the new products, Ford's 7-seat medium and large SUV Everest (Everest) will be domestically produced in September 2015, marking that the company has officially become another Ford passenger car platform in China. Currently, there are few similar SUV products in China, and the prices are high, which cannot meet the growing demand of the SUV market very well. It is expected that the new products will bring new growth points to the company, with an estimated monthly sales volume of more than 3,000. In terms of commercial vehicles, Quanshun's two products, Tourneo Custom and Transit Connect, will be launched one after another. It is worth emphasizing that Tourneo Custom will extend to the MPV sector. The Chinese MPV market will maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in the future, but currently there is a large gap between models, and Tourneo Custom is expected to fill the gap for domestic commercial MPVs. Maintaining the Strongly Recommended Rating and raising the target price to HK$50.6: We forecast the Company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be $2.99, $4.05 and $4.78, respectively. Considering the company's shareholder background, stable past performance and high dividend rate, we gave the company a valuation of 10 times PE in 2016, which is equivalent to the target price of HK$50.6. There is room for an increase of 26.7% compared to the current price, and maintains a highly recommended rating.

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