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【银河证券】跃岭股份:专注于国AM市场的铝合金车轮制造商

[Galaxy Securities] Yueling Co., Ltd.: an aluminum alloy wheel manufacturer specializing in China's AM market

中國銀河 ·  Jan 16, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company's products are mainly exported to foreign markets, and led by the AM market. At present, the company's products have been exported to Russia, Japan, the United States, Southeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East and South America and more than 80 countries and regions. According to the statistics of the Customs Information Network, the company's exports ranked 49th in the national automobile industry in 2012. since 2011, the company's aluminum wheel export continues to rank fifth in the country, among which it continues to rank first in the export foreign AM market.

There is a broad demand for after-sales modification in foreign countries. The output of cars in foreign markets has increased steadily, and the number of cars in major countries in the world has shown a steady upward trend, resulting in the overall stable development trend of the market demand for automobile aluminum alloy wheels. The current production capacity of automobile aluminum alloy wheels is far from being able to meet the future market demand, and the total production capacity of the company after the project has been put into production still accounts for only about 10% of the foreign after-sales modification market share, and there is plenty of room for market development in the future.

The company maintains the growth of operating net cash flow, excellent income quality and low capital risk. The company's products are small batch, diversified, differentiated, beautified, and the market response is fast. Customers are well-known local dealers, and cooperate with the company for many years, good reputation, fast payback speed. At the same time, in order to meet the small batch and diversified production characteristics of foreign automobile aluminum alloy wheel AM market, the company has made innovations in business model and management mode. It adapts to the market characteristics that customers pay much more attention to product quality and delivery time than the change of product price.

Fund-raising projects to expand production capacity. (1) the project with an annual output of 2.3 million pieces of cast spinning automobile aluminum alloy wheels will be fully put into production by the end of 2014: the new products are produced by casting spinning technology, which has a more competitive advantage in performance-price ratio; after reaching production, the total capacity will reach 5.8 million pieces. The improvement of the company's production scale level can effectively improve labor productivity and reduce product production costs. Use the advanced casting spinning technology in the industry to expand the production capacity of 15-24 inch aluminum alloy wheels, expand the company's market share in the foreign middle and high-end AM market, and consider entering the domestic AM market, domestic OEM market and foreign OEM market successively after meeting the conditions. (2) the R & D center construction project, after this project is put into operation, it will improve the technical content of the company's products, strengthen the company's new product design ability, and accelerate the product upgrading, so as to better meet the small batch and diversified production characteristics of the foreign AM market of aluminum alloy wheels, and enhance the product market competitiveness.

It is suggested that the inquiry range is 9.36-11.7 yuan. Based on 100 million shares after the offering, the company is expected to achieve earnings of 0.96,1.17 and 1.28 respectively in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Combined with the valuation of relevant companies in the same industry, and taking into account trade frictions, the uncertainty of new capacity digestion and the performance uncertainty of future OEM transformation, we believe that compared with the current comparable companies, the competitive advantage of the company is not obvious, giving the company a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio valuation range of 8-10 times in 2014.

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