Major innovative products: the full-cast scraper without welding middle groove has an optimistic market prospect. At present, it has been successfully industrialized, the first set of international sets, the invention patent, and the service life is close to twice that of the ordinary scraper machine (the middle groove accounts for 70% of the value of the scraper machine, which can be sold separately; the ordinary middle groove is replaced in about 1 year, and the stock is in great demand for renewal; the technical barrier of wear-resistant alloy materials is very high, and it is difficult for similar competitors to appear in China within 2-3 years).
The company's scraper products are highly alternative and have a low base, and are expected to achieve an average annual high-speed growth of more than 70% in the next three years. We believe that the current domestic scraper market space is more than 10 billion yuan, and the industry growth rate will be about 15% in the next 3 years. The current business volume of the company's scraper machine is less than 100 million yuan, the base is small, and the future market space is huge.
The company is mainly engaged in pneumatic and lightweight technology, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 20% in the next 3 years. According to market estimates, the market capacity of coal mine bolting machines and tools is about 500 million yuan in 2010, 700 million yuan in 2012 and 1.2 billion yuan in 2015. As a leading enterprise with a market share of 30%, the growth rate of the company may exceed the growth rate of the industry by 5 percentage points in the next three years. The company's safety drilling rigs are expected to grow by more than 50% in the next three years. As one of the coal mine safety equipment, the demand of safety drilling rig is basically not affected by the decline in the growth rate of fixed assets investment in coal mining machinery, and the growth rate of the industry is about 15-20%. The base of the company is small, the power of energy-saving and efficient pneumatic motor is 2 times that of ordinary, the product performance is superior, the future growth rate may be faster. In addition, the company's safety rigs will also be used in the field of coalbed methane development in the future.
The company's roadheader positioning small and medium-sized models, take the differential development route.
Fund-raising project: coal mining equipment industrialization project. It has an annual production capacity of 100sets of roadheader, 100sets of bolt drilling vehicles, 10000 sets of bolt machines and 50 sets of scraper conveyors. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 300 million yuan, and the construction period is 1.5 years. After reaching production, the sales income can be increased by nearly 600 million yuan, and the total annual profit is 130 million yuan.
Suggested inquiry range: 7.50-8.0 yuan PE of the five comparable companies in the coal machinery industry from 2011 to 2014 were 27 times, 19 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively. We predict that the EPS of the company from 2012 to 2014 is 0.45,0.57,0.72 yuan respectively, and the suggested inquiry range is 7.5-8.0 yuan, corresponding to 17-18 times the 12-year PE.
Main risk factors: the market development of scraper machine is lower than expected and the demand for coal machinery is shrinking.
