Profit forecast and inquiry range: assuming the issue price is 17.07 yuan and the number of shares issued is 24.26 million shares, it is predicted that the company's EPS for 13-15 years will be 0.99,1.14,1.28 yuan, + 4%, + 15% and + 12% compared with the same period last year. Yueling shares belong to the auto wheel industry, the average PE15 of mainstream auto parts companies in 2014, we use PE13-17 times as the relative valuation range, the corresponding price 14.69 yuan 20.09 yuan. Car wheel comparable company's PE is 19 times, we think the reasonable valuation range is 15-19 times, the corresponding market value is 16.95-2.147 billion yuan, the price is 17.1-21.66 yuan. If the company completes the fund-raising target, the old shareholders will not buy back, and the issue price will be 16.57 yuan.
How big is the market? According to the forecast of the total number of passenger cars that need to replace aluminum wheels in the after-sales market according to 2% of passenger car ownership, the global aluminum wheel AM market (with relatively low requirements) in 2013-2015 has a demand of 8700, 8900 and 92 million pieces, with Yueling's current market share accounting for about 4%. However, if you take into account the demand for all aluminum wheels, Yueling only accounts for 0.3% of the market share. At present, the company has a strategy to expand the vehicle distribution market. On the whole, the market scale is very large.
How competitive is it? Although the market is large, but the competitiveness of Yueling in the overall market is not strong, belonging to the middle level. The domestic market is monopolized by Wanfengote and CITIC Daika, and other companies, including Yueling, can only survive in the slits. Yueling has a certain advantage in customer stability, has a good relationship with customers and does not have significant dependence.
How much does it grow? Yueling's traditional advantage lies in the AM market, which will gradually open with the increase of car ownership. At present, the domestic market does not have the conditions to open. Yueling's growth lies in occupying the OEM market at home and abroad, that is, opening the whole vehicle distribution market. This requires the company to further improve its technical level.
Fund-raising project analysis: the 2.3 million casting aluminum alloy wheel project will improve product quality, reduce production costs, improve product quality, and further enhance the competitiveness and profitability of the company's products in domestic and foreign markets.
Risk hint: as an export-oriented enterprise, the company is greatly affected by trade frictions, exchange rate changes and global macroeconomic fluctuations. In addition, there is the risk of decline in the automotive industry as a whole and the risk of rising raw materials.