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【国泰君安证券】金莱特新股询价定价报告:备用照明领跑者,产能释放益于业绩复苏

國泰君安 ·  Jan 13, 2014 11:00  · Researches

Recommended inquiry range: 8.9-10.9 yuan. The company's current fundraising plan is 273 million yuan. We judge that the possibility of overfunding is unlikely. Assuming that all of these IPOs are new shares, and there are no transfers of old shares (total share capital of 93.34 million shares after issuance), we expect the company's diluted EPS for 2014-2015 to be 0.64 yuan and 0.77 yuan respectively. We think the reasonable pricing range is 10.9 yuan to 12.8 yuan. The recommended inquiry range is 8.9-10.9 yuan, corresponding to 14-17 times the company's 14-year PE valuation, with a market value of 83-1.02 billion yuan. Production capacity bottlenecks are a major obstacle to the growth of the company's performance. In 2010-2012, Jinlight's revenue rose from 453 million yuan to 559 million yuan, a compound growth rate of 11.1%, lower than the industry's overall export growth rate (17%), and market share also showed a downward trend, mainly because the company's production capacity was insufficient to meet market demand. In 2013, the company experienced a significant negative increase in profit due to: 1) factory relocation; 2) unreleased new production capacity; and 3) increased financial expenses. We expect that companies that invest in new production capacity will gradually recover in 2014. The fund-raising project still focuses on the core business. The company plans to raise a total of 273 million yuan in capital in this IPO, mainly in the rechargeable backup LED lighting expansion project and the rechargeable AC/DC fan production expansion project. After the fund-raising project is put into operation, the production capacity of 10.61 million units will be increased (the original production capacity is 11 million units). In the future, the company will continue to focus on existing core backup lighting and derivatives, while also focusing on improving product quality. The company is also considering taking the opportunity to explore the domestic market and gradually build its own brand in the domestic market. Profit for 13-15 is expected to increase by a compound of 33.7%. We expect the company's revenue in 2014-2015 to be 70/840 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%/20%, respectively, and net profit of 0.64 /77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 49%/20%. The 2013-2015 profit CAGR was 33.7%. The reason profit growth rate is higher than revenue is that we expect the company's financial expenses to decrease as the capital raised is in place, and the management expense ratio will tend to decline as the revenue growth rate increases. Core risk: Market competition is fierce, and profit growth falls short of expectations due to declining company competitiveness

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