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【兴业证券】登云股份:民资气门龙头

興業證券 ·  Jan 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The reasonable value range is 7.2 to 8.7 yuan. We expect the company's fully diluted earnings per share for 2013-2015 to be $0.43, $0.48, and $0.58, respectively. The valve industry is fiercely competitive, and the 3-year compound growth rate is expected to be 5%-8%. The company is expected to grow beyond the industry by raising capital to expand production and develop new customers, but current profits are highly dependent on the medium and heavy diesel engine supporting market in the domestic investment chain. We believe that the company's reasonable value range is 7.2-8.7 yuan, implying an expected price-earnings ratio of 15-18 times that of 2014. The company is a leading private enterprise in the domestic automobile valve industry. The main products are diesel engine and gasoline engine valves, and the downstream covers all kinds of vehicles such as heavy vehicles, light trucks, large buses, micro cars, cars, and hybrid cars. In 2012, the company sold about 1,000 and 1,800 diesel engine valves respectively, achieving revenue of 300 million yuan and net profit of 39 million yuan. The domestic market share is about 8-10%, ranking third in the industry. The company's shareholding structure is scattered. With the exception of 4 corporate shareholders and 1 limited partnership shareholder, the other 56 shareholders are all natural persons, of which the nine concerted actors who jointly control the company hold 46.43% of the shares. The controlling shareholder's shareholding ratio will be diluted to 34.82% after issuance. From 2010 to 2012, the company's internal and external sales volume complemented each other to achieve stable revenue, open up new customers and increase development space. The company's profit depends on domestic diesel engine support and foreign after-sales markets, so the pressure on the industry will be strong this year and next. Compared with other competitors above the scale, the company's competitive advantage is not obvious. In 2013, the company opened up new customers such as Caterpillar and Changan Mazda, which is expected to ease the pressure on the demand level of the industry. Fund-raising projects are mainly used to expand production capacity. The production capacity of gasoline engine valves will be increased by 11.5 million units/year, and the production capacity of diesel engine valves will be increased by 8.5 million units/year, and the overall production capacity will increase 80% to 45 million; per year.

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