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【光大证券】远程电缆:受益于行业集中度提升和产品高端化

光大證券 ·  Jul 24, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Event: The IPO company is a well-known cable company at home and abroad. Revenue and net profit have maintained steady growth. The company is located in Yixing, the “cable capital”. It is a well-known cable company at home and abroad with leading technology and a focus on service; since its establishment, the company has been focusing on the cable industry. From 2009 to 2011, revenue was 970 million yuan, 1.51 billion yuan and 2.06 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 45.8%; net profit was 45.8%; net profit was 48.78 million yuan, 87.95 million yuan and 11.81 million yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 56%. The industry is growing steadily. Increased concentration and high-end development are the direction of development. Listed companies are expected to expand and strengthen the domestic cable market by more than trillion dollars. The growth rate will remain between 10% and 15% during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and growth will be relatively stable. There are nearly 5,000 domestic cable companies, 90% of which are small and medium-sized enterprises, and are stuck in homogenized competition with low technology content. In the future, mergers and restructuring within the industry will occur in large numbers, industry concentration is expected to increase, and listed companies with financial advantages and greater ability to obtain capital are expected to continue to grow. Furthermore, high-end products such as environmental protection and energy efficiency, ultra-high voltage, and special cables rely on imports, and nationalization of high-end products is also the direction of industry development; in the direction of high-end, listed companies with technological and financial advantages are expected to benefit. The company has many competitive advantages, and equity incentives amplify advantages. The company has competitive advantages such as market qualifications, brand, customer structure, and technology research and development. It focuses on differentiated competitive strategies, and also adopts “procurement of spot copper” and “raw material cost+processing fee+target gross profit” pricing models to ensure product profitability. The company's equity structure is balanced, management holds large shares, and sufficient incentives. This enables the company to expand its competitive advantage and maintain the company's growth in the fiercely competitive cable industry. The fund-raising projects are in line with the development direction of the industry, and have great potential for growth. The company's fund-raising projects are two projects, ultra-high voltage environmentally friendly intelligent cross-linked cable technology transformation and mineral-insulated special cables. They are high-end products and have high barriers to entry; the market segments faced by these two projects are expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period; furthermore, benefiting from increased industry concentration, the company's fund-raising projects have great potential for growth. Investment advice: The investment value per share is 16.84 to 20.02 yuan. We predict that the company's EPS from 2012 to 2014 will be 0.91 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.66 yuan. Referring to the valuation of listed companies in the same industry, the company is valued 18.5 to 22.0 times in 2012, then the investment value per share is 16.84 to 20.02 yuan. Risk Warning: Raw material prices fluctuate greatly, and fund-raising projects fall short of expectations

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