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【华泰证券】顺威股份:塑料空调风叶龙头,综合竞争实力突出

[Huatai] Shunwei shares: plastic air conditioner wind blade leader, outstanding comprehensive competitive strength

華泰證券 ·  May 10, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Air conditioning blades professional production leading enterprises. The company specializes in R & D, production and sales of plastic air conditioning blades, with a complete "plastic modification-mold design and manufacturing-plastic air conditioning blades design and manufacturing" industry chain, the leading products are cross-flow blades, axial flow blades and centrifugal blades.

From 2009 to 2011, revenue grew at a compound rate of 46.61%, with a market share of more than 25% for three consecutive years.

The industry has room for growth. Although the downstream air conditioning market faces short-term fluctuations, it still has room for stable growth in the long run; national policies encourage and guide industrial upgrading and actively transfer to the central and western regions, which is expected to stimulate new development opportunities; the production scale of enterprises in the industry is relatively small, which is conducive to the superiority of enterprises to stand out. The industry has barriers in the aspects of brand, new product R & D and design, continuous quality control, scale effect, management and technical personnel, so it is difficult for new entrants to meet the needs of the market in the short term.

The company has an outstanding competitive advantage. The market share continues to stabilize at more than 25%, and the leading position is obvious; with high-quality customer resources, the concentration of the top five customers is more than 70%, accounting for more than 80% of domestic orders from international manufacturers such as Samsung. Gree, Midea and other domestic manufacturers order 20%, 40%, form a long-term cooperative relationship; improve the industrial chain, have comprehensive supporting capacity, and contribute income from modified plastics and moulds, which is growing rapidly. Adapt to the trend of industrial upgrading and transfer, the layout of the four major production bases.

Profit forecast and valuation: in 2012, the company has a revenue of 1.404 billion yuan and a net profit of 104 million yuan. The corresponding post-issue EPS is expected to be 0.85,1.14 and 1.45 yuan respectively from 2012 to 2014. Considering the prospect of the industry, the dominant position of the company and the driving force of sustainable development, it is expected that the reasonable range of PE in 2012 is 17-19.50 times, and the reasonable price range is 14.47-16.59 yuan.

Risk tips: new demand is lower than expected; market competition intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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